Winter is here.
As Greg discussed in his forecast yesterday, it is mid-morning and the majority of the state has switched over to plain rain. It was a busy morning, with numerous accidents on the roads and dozens of delays, but things have and will gradually improve over the course of the day.
While the bulk of the precipitation may have ended, we are still seeing plain rain moving and developing from the south and west. Temperatures south of the parkway and 95 are above freezing, along with a number of locations in central Connecticut, but there seems to be residual sleet still covering the ground, so beware of slick conditions.
In between these locations, some spots, especially in the northwest and northeast hills could still be hovering around freezing. Take caution as the roadways will continue to be slick if for no other reason than the rain that continues in part of the state at this hour.
A quick glance backward
All of the reports have not yet come in, but this looked like a run of the mill SWFE that was minor in the scheme of things but had a higher impact for those on the roads this morning due to the timing of the storm. The accumulations that have come in so far seem to be within our forecast range.
When thinking of the models that performed well, you have to give a nod to the NAM, HRRR, and European model, which were all warmer and showed a more accurate onset of precipitation. The NAM and HRRR are higher resolution short range models, and the Euro is our bulwark global model. The loser was clearly the GFS, which was the coldest model and wrong on how warm the system would be. Looking at this kind of data helps us make better forecasts in the future.
Snowfall/sleet totals reported to the National Weather Service (note that southern CT totals have not been updated yet):
3 SSE ROXBURY 1.0 724 AM 12/29 FACEBOOK
3 E SOUTHINGTON 2.0 700 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
1 NW COLLINSVILLE 1.4 700 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
EAST FARMINGTON HEIG 1.3 708 AM 12/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SSE WEST HARTFORD 1.1 700 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
2 SE ENFIELD 1.0 700 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
1 ENE NORTH GRANBY 1.0 745 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
3 SW CENTRAL MANCHES 1.0 700 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
SOMERS 1.1 939 AM 12/29 NONE
TOLLAND 1.0 821 AM 12/29 NONE
NNW STAFFORDVILLE 1.0 500 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
1 SW EAST KILLINGLY 0.9 700 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
2 NE MOOSUP 0.5 600 AM 12/29 COCORAHS
Expect a soggy day that gradually improves as the precipitation clears out. Take it easy on the roads and sidewalks, though temperatures will continue to rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s by the afternoon. Expect foggy spots later this evening, and a cloudy day tomorrow with temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
We will resume our regular forecaster discussions showing you the week ahead soon.
Finally, although I have forecasted many weather events in the past, this is my first time doing it on this scale. It was truly an honor being the source of information that reached tens of thousands of people the last few days, and being relied upon for updates. It is something we all take seriously at SCW, and we do our very best to provide you with the information needed to make an informed decision without hype. It was a pleasure to do our “live chat” where I was around to answer your burning questions and discuss weather generally before the event began, all the way until 5am! I hope to do many more of those in the future.
Thanks for reading, sharing, and following us the last few days! All of our success is because of you! We cannot continue to grow without your support. If you haven’t done so already, please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @SouthernCTWX. I will be contacting folks that entered our photo contest by tonight.
This tired forecaster is signing off to get some sleep. Take care.
-DB (with additions from TW)