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Forecasters Discussion for 4/30/2015

4/30/2015

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Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

We've had a nice last few days, with seasonable temperatures and generally clear skies, and that stretch looks to continue over the next couple of days, with a steadily climbing temperature profile right through the weekend into next week along with generally sunny skies. 

For tomorrow, we'll be slightly below normal, with highs topping out in the upper 50s to near 60. We'll have partly cloudy skies, with some chances for fleeting sunshine in the afternoon and evening hours, especially towards sunset.

We take a step up the temperature ladder for Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s expected. Mostly sunny skies should be the theme of the day, with some clouds possible along the shoreline due to a system passing to our south. Those clouds, if they develop, could press temps down a bit right along the water, but for most of the state, it should be a beautiful start to May,

Another step up on the ladder brings us to Sunday. Highs jump another order of magnitude into the lower 70s, and skies will be partly cloudy, with a chance of some scattered showers, especially in the northern tier of the state. Monday will be the warmest of all, with highs pushing the upper 70s to near the eighty degree mark for the first time in 2015! Combined with mostly sunny skies, this will make for a positively summerlike feeling out there!

Temperatures remain above normal through the middle of the week, with a chance for precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. More on that as we get closer!
-SA

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Forecasters Discussion for 4/20/2015

4/20/2015

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Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Well, our stretch of nice weather has finally run out, and today we’ve got dreary skies with temperatures in the upper 40s across the state, accompanied by rain and drizzle of various intensities. 
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That’ll be the story for much of the day, with rain remaining steady and moderate throughout the afternoon before gradually tapering down to showers, which should move out by Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be a much nicer day than today is, with highs in the mid to upper 60s expected along with clearing skies giving way to sunshine for the better part of the day.

Rain moves back into the state for Wednesday and Wednesday evening, but this time in the form of some scattered showers, which although will be somewhat widespread in coverage look to be very low intensity. Clouds will build throughout the day though as this weak system comes through, and therefore temps will be capped a bit, with highs around 60 across the state. Showers will persist into Wednesday evening before dissipating by daybreak Thursday. 
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As a result, we should see mostly sunny skies on Thursday, but with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s expected. That looks to be the theme right through the weekend, with Friday, Saturday and Sunday all featuring mainly sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Here’s the daily forecast:

Tuesday: Scattered showers early, then clearing and becoming sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%

Wednesday: Clouds building, with showers likely in the afternoon/evening hours. Highs around 60. Chance of precipitation is 60%

Thursday: Clearing, then becoming mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 20%

Friday-Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

We’ll have another update later in the week that will wrapup the winter season, look back at our winter forecast and evaluate it, and give you a more detailed weekend forecast, but until then, have a wonderful day and thank you for reading SCW!

-SA

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Forecasters Discussion for 4/15/2015

4/15/2015

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Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

We’ve had a great run of weather the last several days, and that looks to continue for the balance of the extended forecast period, with generally normal to above normal temperatures expected throughout. Towards the end of the period, it looks like we shift towards a cooler and wetter regime, with several potential systems in the pipeline to perhaps bring some rain to the area. Let’s take a look at the dailies.

Tomorrow looks to be another warm and sunny day, with temperatures around 60 and mostly sunny skies expected, with perhaps some passing clouds in the afternoon. We’ll see showers move in tomorrow night and linger throughout much of the day Friday as a result of a weak shortwave moving over our area. The forecast carries a chance of showers through Saturday, but in general, expect coverage to diminish after mid-morning Friday as the defined shortwave moves out and a weak ULL is all that remains to promote development.  Highs for Friday again will fall around the 60 mark, slightly cooler right on the coastline.

Saturday brings a cold front late in the day as a result of a strong upper level low moving across the area, but before then, it’s likely that we will see the warmest readings of 2015 so far, with highs in the lower 70s expected. We should see mostly sunny skies, with only a slight chance for some showers, and so it’ll be a beautiful day to be outside soaking up the sunshine! 

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A cold front passes through Saturday night and knocks temperatures down to the upper 50s to around 60 for Sunday, and also results in steadily building cloud cover ahead of our next system approaching from the west for Sunday night into Monday. Yet another ULL approaches from the west and moves through the region, but this one is much stronger than the previous ones in the forecast and will likely spawn a surface low, eventually transferring to the Atlantic coastline and bringing a widespread rainfall to the area. 
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Here’s your daily forecast.

Thursday: Sunny, with highs around 60.

Friday: A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs around 60. Chance of rain is 60%

Saturday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain is 20%

Sunday: Clouds building throughout the day, some PM showers possible, with highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain is 30%.

Monday: A chance of rain, otherwise, cloudy, with highs around 50. Chance of rain is 60%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, clearing, with highs in the low 50s. Chance of rain is 30%.

Enjoy the upcoming warmth and beautiful weekend that’s in store, and thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!

-SA

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Forecasters Discussion for 4/7/2015- Extended Forecast

4/7/2015

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

After a generally tranquil period over the last few days (with the exception of the winds on Saturday and Sunday), rains and raw conditions have moved in and are here to stay for the next few days. Across the state currently we have scattered rain showers and temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s. Temperatures will come down slightly and showers will become more numerous as we head toward midnight, in association with an upper level low pressure system moving in very slowly from the mid-west.

For tomorrow, I am expecting mostly the same as today, dreary, rainy conditions, with one caveat, rain may mix with and change to sleet, especially in northern sections of the state. High temperatures will also be cooler than today, barely reaching the 40s, even down to the shoreline. Temperatures look to even start to drop as we head through the afternoon. Looking ahead to tomorrow night, rain, freezing rain, and sleet look to still be in the state. Yes, again, I did mention wintry precipitation, but I think travel troubles will be confined to the northern parts of Connecticut more toward the Litchfield Hills. Temperatures at night will be right around freezing north of 84, and just above in places south. Icing does not look like a concern at the shore where temperatures will hover in the 33-35 degree range.
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Heading toward Thursday and the latter half of the work week, it starts rainy and dreary. Any freezing rain in northern Connecticut should turn back to plain rain by about sunrise, and rain in general begins to taper off across the state through about lunchtime. Although rain does look to end, the cloudy and cool conditions will not. High temperatures on Thursday will struggle to make it to the mid 40s state wide, and there will be a bit of a northeast wind, so it will feel more like late November than early April. As we head through Thursday evening into Friday morning, it looks as though there will be another round of showers across the state. Not looking like anything major, more of a nuisance than anything. Temperatures on Thursday night into Friday morning look to first drop early on Thursday evening into the mid and upper 30s and then gradually rise through the 40s after midnight on Friday. 

After some early lingering showers and clouds on Friday morning, it looks as though there will be some clearing as we head through toward lunchtime on Friday. In fact, depending on how much sun we see, temperatures could touch the 60 degree mark on Friday afternoon,  a welcomed break from dreary and raw conditions. This will set the stage for what looks like a great weekend weather-wise. Not only does it look like a dry weekend, it looks as if temperatures will be seasonably warm with highs reaching the low and possibly mid 60s by Sunday.
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Don't look now, but it looks as if warm temperatures will be making a stay in the state through the end of next week. Highs for next week look to break the 60 degree mark every single day, infact by the end of next week highs could reach the low to mid 70s. In terms of storminess for next week, I am watching for a couple of pulses of energy, and possibly our first real chance at thunderstorms by the end of next week as conditions may become, dare I say it, sticky.

Looking even longer term, temperatures look to stay right around seasonable through the middle and end of the month with no major cool downs in sight. For snow lovers, you may have to wait until next fall/winter for your next shot a accumulating snow. There could always be a surprise though, but I do not see that coming. I am watching for a potential cool down for the beginning of May, other than that, after Friday, spring looks to be here to stay.
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Now for your simplified extended forecast:

Wednesday: Rainy and raw, high temperatures upper 30s and lower 40s, Rain, possibly changing to freezing rain and sleet inland, low temperatures 30-35.

Thursday:  Early sleet and freezing rain inland changing to plain rain and tapering off during the mid morning hours with clouds remaining through the afternoon, highs 38-42. Cloudy conditions early in the evening with showers moving back in lows in the upper 30s and low 40s

Friday: Early showers clearly out with some clouds remaining through lunchtime, some peaks of sun in the afternoon, highs 55-60. Skies becoming partly cloudy late at night, lows 35-40

Saturday: Partly cloudy early becoming completely sunny in the afternoon, highs 60-65,  Mostly clear at night with lows in the lower 40.

Sunday: Mostly sunny during the day, mostly clear at night, highs 60-65, lows 40-45

Monday (4/13): Mostly sunny during the day, some clouds later at night, highs 60-65 at the shore, 65-70 inland, lows low to mid 40s

Tuesday (4/14): Skies clouding over with showers developing toward the afternoon, highs 60-65, lingering  showers and possibly storms during the evening, lows mid 40s

Have a good rest of your evening everyone! Just keep in mind, if you're tired of this dreary, cool weather, stay strong, better days are ahead!- Tim
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Forecasters Discussion for 4/1/2015

4/1/2015

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A very good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

It’s a clear and cold day outside, with temperatures generally within a few degrees on either side of the 40 degree mark across the state, and except for a few lingering clouds in the northern tier of the state, we’ve got clear skies and sunshine as the theme of the day. While it may warm a few more degrees over the course of the afternoon, the theme for the rest of the day will be below normal temperatures.

Thankfully, that changes tomorrow, as warmer air moves in and sends temperatures into the low to mid 50s across the state, which when combined with a mix of clouds and sun will feel positively spring like! There is a slim chance of a passing shower or sprinkle, especially in the afternoon and in northern areas, but for the most part, we should remain dry until after dark.

A weak frontal wave approaches from the NW on Thursday night into Friday morning and sets off a period of rain that looks to last right through Saturday. At first, we’ll see mainly scattered showers with isolated areas of heavier rain, but as the front passes through, a follow-up storm forms SW of us and moves NE, passing right over or just SE of the state and then out into the gulf of Maine, resulting in heavier rains from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  Rain should be out of the state by mid-day Saturday, and by Saturday late afternoon we should get a nice taste of sunshine as the day comes to a close.

Every cloud has a silver lining, and the silver lining here is that this system will bring with it much warmer temperatures, with highs on Friday pushing into the 60s! However, it will be short-lived as colder air comes in on the backside of the system, crashing our temperatures back down to around the freezing mark by Saturday evening. There is a slim chance of a bit of snow on the backside of the system, but as of now not expecting any meaningful accumulations outside of perhaps a dusting to a coating in the higher elevations.

Temperatures continue to be below normal on Sunday, and again the chance for some precipitation is possible as an overrunning system approaches from the west and passes nearly linearly across New England. On what latitude the system tracks, however, is unclear, with some of the guidance pushing it well north of us and bringing only clouds to the area, some bringing the brunt of the system to us as rain, and some sliding it south of us and allowing for snow on the northern fringe. As of now I’m leaning towards a miss or rain, but we’ll continue to keep an eye on it and will update as the details become clearer.

In the long range, generally below normal temperatures and unsettled weather continues to be the theme, with several possible chances for precipitation on the models from early next week on.  We’ll get into that in more detail as we draw closer, but until then, have a great rest of your day and thank you for reading SCW!

-SA
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