Some sunny weather today will lead to a threat of thunderstorms and showers heading towards the weekend. Unfortunately, we will have a return of the hot, humid weather we have all learned to hate by now. Sunday though, the wet and humid weather will move out, getting replaced by what looks to be a potential heat wave for next week.
High pressure today will be replaced by an approaching warm front tomorrow morning. Following the passage of the warm front, Thursday – Saturday’s weather will be mostly influenced by the tropical air mass that will be in place behind the front. Depending on cloud cover, daytime radiational heating looks to destabilize the lower atmosphere these days, and provide the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. The GFS has a cold front passing through Saturday night/ Sunday morning, and a ridge builds in to the start of next week.
An approaching warm front will bring the chance for showers and some convective showers Wednesday morning. 800 mb vorticity maps indicate pockets of instability that could produce thunder, so for the commute tomorrow morning be aware of the threat of heavy rain. Following the passage of the front, a humid air mass will setup in the state. As CAPE values increase in the afternoon and evening, especially along the NW portion of the state, expect to see the chance of thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds and localized flooding. The NW corner should see the highest chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two late in the day, with the rest of the state running a lower risk for a thunderstorm. Temperatures should reach the 80s statewide, and expect humid conditions.
The state will remain warm sectored, and this means we run the chance of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm every day. CAPE values according to the NAM seem to still remain over NW CT, meaning that part of the state runs the highest risk of thunderstorm formation. For the rest of the state, widespread showers and cloudy, muggy weather will plague the state. Temperatures will climb to the mid 80s, and this combined with the humid air will make for very uncomfortable weather over the next three days.
Sunday - Tuesday
The passage of a cold front late Saturday into early Sunday will mark a much needed change in conditions. There is a slight chance for showers with the passing of the front, otherwise we will see improving conditions. An upper level ridge will build in, and sunny skies will allow the state to get some much needed sunshine. Unfortunately, dew points will remain fairly high meaning it will be hot and slightly humid. NAM output indicates temperatures in the 90s statewide, not taking into account the humidity. It most likely will feel like mid 90s statewide, except the immediate shoreline which will feel cooler thanks to onshore flow.
Wednesday: Chance for showers and thundershowers early. Then, a chance for thunderstorms late. Humid. Highs in the low 80s. 70% chance of rain.
Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Hot. Highs in the upper 80s. 50% chance of rain.
Friday: Chance for showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs in the 80s. 40% chance of rain.
Saturday: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs in the 80s. 30% chance.
Sunday: Becoming sunny. Hot. Highs in the upper 80s.
Monday: Sunny. Hot. Highs in the 90s.
Tuesday: Sunny. Hot. Highs in the 90s.
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!