Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
After today’s record breaking warmth, a cold front will bring slightly cooler weather to the region tomorrow. Scattered showers will be possible just about any time, but later further south, as showers work behind the front from north to south. Temperatures will be tricky, but should generally range from the mid to upper 50s, which is still well above normal. A continued downward trend in temperatures is expected on Sunday. Highs should be back somewhere around normal, and should be fairly uniform in the low 50s. The reason for the uniformity is that there will be more clouds in the south, limiting the usual warmth there. But all the rain should be south of the state by then.
Monday should be a chilly day, with temperatures probably not making it to 45 anywhere in the state, despite a good deal of sun statewide. Clouds and temperatures should both increase on Tuesday, ahead of a storm system tracking into the Great lakes, which will also bring milder air with it. In general, high temperatures should be in the low to mid 50s. The best timing for rainfall from that system appears to be late Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday. It’s a fast moving system, but can bring some heavy rain with it as it sweeps through the area. There’s even a slight chance of thunderstorms along the south coast. Temperatures may rise into the mid to upper 50s overnight, then fall slowly during the day on Wednesday, behind the cold front. The end of next week should be unremarkable, with near normal temperatures and clear to partly cloudy skies.
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
As you're finishing up your pre-Thanksgiving preparations and getting set for a fantastic holiday celebration, the atmosphere is finishing up it's stay on the negative side of the normal mercury. For the last few days, we've seen a trough over our area, resulting in below-normal temperatures and a taste of winter-like temperatures. That will come to an end tomorrow, however, as a weak system cuts to our west, warm-sectoring us on the southeast side of the storm and resulting in much warmer temperatures compared to the past two days. While this warmth will be short lived, it will make for a pleasant end to the week, perfect for some outdoor fun during your Thanksgiving celebration or for frenzied shopping trips on Friday. It should be noted that while it will be above normal, we're not getting anywhere near the extreme warmth we saw at the start of the month, where temperatures were 20 degrees or more above normal! In general, temps will be ~10 degrees above normal, with readings on Friday a few degrees warmer than Thursday.
A weak frontal passage sweeps across the state from NW to SE Saturday morning, bringing a return to near-normal temperatures for the weekend. While a few showers are possible with this frontal passage, guidance has been trending drier and weaker with the front, resulting in a weaker shot of cold air(Hence only a return to near normalcy instead of a flip to more solidly below normal as was modeled a few days ago), but also the elimination of substantial precipitation chances as the front carries very little moisture with it, and there will be less instability produced as a result of the lower gradient.
Here's a look at the southeastward progression of the frontal boundary throughout the day on Saturday.
Near-normal temperatures prevail into early next week before our next storm threat approaches around the change of the month, which has been slightly delayed on guidance to a Tuesday into Wednesday threat over the last day or two from it's previous placement on Monday into Tuesday. Model consensus is pretty solid on a track into the Great Lakes, placing us in the warm sector and resulting in above normal temperatures and rain. Due to the moderating cold shot, I don't see a real risk of frozen precipitation to start, although I won't rule out some light back end snows if the system were to transfer to a coastal storm quicker. It is worth noting that todays guidance did trend in that direction towards a quicker and further SE transfer, and while it would take a substantial additional trend to make that a realistic scenario where we could see some snow, it's not entirely out of the question. As of now though, it looks like a rainy middle of the week, and given that there is very little support for a wintry backside(Limited to a few Euro ensemble members and a GEFS member or two), will leave any mention of snow out of the forecast for now. Cooler temps follow on the backside of that system into next weekend.
Here are the dailies:
Thanksgiving Day: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs peaking early at about 50, and then temps falling throughout the day. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 40s.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with a slight chance of some sprinkles in southern areas. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: A chance of rain. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
From all of us here at Southern Connecticut Weather, best wishes for a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday and a happy start to the holiday season!
Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Today was a sunny, but blustery day, highs barely reached the 40s statewide, with some elevated interior locations not making it above the upper 30s. Through this evening, skies stay clear to mostly clear, allowing for radiational cooling, dropping temperatures inland into mid 20s, with low 30s being observed as you head closer to the shore.
For tomorrow, conditions will be similar to today, if not slightly ‘warmer’. High temperatures will range from the low 40s inland, to the mid 40s in southern Connecticut. It looks to be another dry, sunny day, with precipitation free conditions expected to last through Wednesday evening as you travel to be with family for the holiday, or just hanging around the area for festivities.
If you aren’t a fan of the early season chilly conditions, Thursday and Friday are the days for you. As winds turn to more of a southerly direction, later Wednesday night, temperatures will moderate nicely for the Thursday and Friday. Both days look to rise through the 50s, with possibility of highs in the 60s by Friday. So it looks as though a light jacket may be all you need as you play your Thanksgiving backyard football games or that stroll to work off some of that food you may have gorged on. Temperatures look even warmer on Friday as you head out for those black Friday sales, or to the gym to work off the pumpkin pie. Both days look relatively dry, outside of a chance for a spot shower on Friday.
Don’t get used to the warm conditions for too long, starting Saturday, a relatively dry frontal passage will again, turn those winds around, from out of the south and southwest, to more north and northwesterly allowing for cool air to converge on the region. Highs on Saturday look to be achieved early in the morning, 45 to 50 degrees statewide, but those temps look to gradually fall throughout the morning and afternoon, down through the 40s and eventually into the 30s, especially in northern Connecticut. As I mentioned previously, the frontal passage does look to come through relatively dry, but there is a chance for some sprinkles and showers come later Saturday morning. For the most part Saturday does look to be dry, and mostly cloudy. Saturday night, temperatures drop down through the 30s, and by Sunday morning we are looking at temps in the low to mid 20s inland with upper 20s at the shore.
For the second half of the weekend, Sunday looks to be a cool, blustery day with temperatures statewide ranging from the mid 30s inland, to low 40s at the shore. Conditions look to be mostly sunny and dry through the evening with temperatures dropping off into the mid 20s inland to around 30 at the shore. Then we set our sights off to our west and southwest as our next potential weather maker bears down on the area. Models right now show an area of low pressure impacting Connecticut’s weather by early next week, right now, it does look as if it will be more wet than white, but could start of as some frozen precipitation, especially in the higher elevations, later Sunday night and early Monday morning. Right now it is much too soon to speculate on track and intensity, as much can change, but we will have much more on this potential storm system as we get closer to the weekend.
Here’s a look at the week ahead:
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, highs 40-45 during the day, mostly clear at night, lows 30-35 Chance of precip: 0%
Thursday (Thanksgiving): Partly cloudy, highs 50-55, lows 35-40, Chance of precip: 10%
Friday: Partly cloudy early, becoming mostly cloudy late, highs 55-60+, chance of precip: 20%
Saturday: Chance of showers otherwise mostly cloudy with early high temperatures ranging from 45-50, temperatures gradually falling throughout the day into the low 40s. Mostly cloudy conditions early in the evening becoming partly cloudy late, lows 30-35 falling into the 20s inland by Sunday morning, chance of precip 30%
Sunday: Clear and cold, highs mid 30s inland, low 40s at the shore. Clouds increase late Sunday night, lows mid to upper 20s statewide, chance for frozen precip toward dawn. Chance of precip 20%
Monday (11/30): *watching the models* Cloudy with frozen precipitation changing to plain rain from south to north. High temperatures 40-45 statewide. Lows in the low to mid 30s
Tuesday (12/1): *watching models* Cloudy, with lingering showers. High temperatures 45-50, lows steady in the 40s
As always, thank you for reading, have a great night! Stay tuned.- Tim
Thanksgiving week forecast and travel outlook…
Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Today is one of those days where location matters. In most of the state, cloudy but dry conditions prevail. In southeastern Connecticut however, many have seen wet conditions, and this is likely to continue off and on during the day and into the evening as a low continues to track along the cold front that recently passed through the state. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to low 50s, as the colder air that was once thought to arrive early on Sunday lags a bit behind schedule.
The above is a snapshot of personal weather stations throughout the region around 2pm today. Here's a look at the radar loop from this afternoon, showing the precipitation we are seeing this afternoon/evening across SECT.
The forecast for this evening is a bit tricky for two reasons—uncertainty regarding the extent of the rain across the state, and whether cold air arrives quickly enough for snow showers later this evening. Some of the higher resolution and rapid refresh models bring a bit more precipitation into a greater part of the state than some of the global models (think GFS and Euro). In addition, there are questions over whether the cold air arrives as precipitation is still falling, or just after precipitation ends. I think the GFS best illustrates the extent of the rain shower activity later this evening. Folks from the northeast corner to Tolland to around New Haven will probably see some shower activity, with folks further south and east (think New London, Groton, and anyone near the RI state line) having the best shot at more meaningful rain. Precipitation should end from west to east during the late night to early morning hours.
To answer the second question, I won’t rule out someone in Connecticut seeing some snowflakes, but I think the cold air is delayed enough to prevent anything widespread or significant. The further southeast you are, the more likely that you do see flakes (though this is admittedly a low probability deal to begin with) simply because the precipitation looks to hang on longer. No accumulation is expected. Sorry snow lovers.
Now, onto Thanksgiving week! In a word, beautiful. Computer guidance is in excellent agreement that an area of high pressure builds over southern New England for Monday and Tuesday, bringing seasonably cold, but sunny weather. As I said in my prior discussion, it will feel like the holiday season has arrived, with daytime temperatures on Monday and Tuesday in the upper 30s to low 40s and nighttime lows in the 20s for most. We get warmer Wednesday through Friday, as high pressure moves offshore and we see warmer flow. Temperatures are likely to be above normal and in the 50s Thursday and Friday. Friday should be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures close to 60! If you are one of the millions that will be traveling along the east coast during this time, you’re in luck. Dry conditions look to be in charge throughout the I-95 corridor through most of Friday. By the weekend, a cold front and upper level trough looks to approach, but timing and how potent the front will be remains unclear. The last few model runs have been less impressive with frontal passage. After the front passes, cooler air looks to enter the picture for at least a day or two as we close out meteorological fall and begin December and meteorological winter!
The week ahead: Monday: Any lingering precipitation ends before sunrise as the storm moves away and high pressure moves in. Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Wednesday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday: Partly sunny to start with increasing clouds and showers possible by the evening. Seasonably warm. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%. Saturday: Rain showers possible depending on the progression of the cold front. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Showers possible depending on the progression of the cold front. Highs in the low 50s. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Forecast Confidence: High confidence Monday through early Friday. Low confidence Saturday and Sunday.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions! Thanks for reading SCW. -DB
Good morning to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
It was a chilly night for many, with most locations getting down into the 20s and some of our colder spots reaching the teens after clear skies and little wind made for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Wednesday is shaping up to be a decent day, with sunny skies in the morning eventually giving way to more cloudy conditions later in the day as the next system approaches. Temperatures should rebound into the upper 40s in the hill towns of Connecticut, with lower 50s elsewhere.
We are keeping an eye on a change however, as a storm passes far to our northwest and the attendant cold front passes through the area on Thursday. Computer guidance has been in good agreement about the rain tomorrow, and it brings the precipitation into the area tomorrow morning and afternoon as we see an increase in southerly flow ahead of the front. Along that front, a weak area of low pressure is expected to form and pass over southern New England Thursday night and early Friday.
Above are images of the 00z GFS and 00z NAM models. These are snapshots of what things could look like around 1pm on Thursday. The radar coverage at that time may not be exactly the same, but the important takeaway to me is that the area is squarely in the middle or close to heavier rain moving into the area.
This looks like a decent rain event, with most of the state totaling between .75 and 1.5 inches of rain.
Virtually all of Thursday through Thursday night looks rainy, with moderate to heavy rain at times. Showers could linger into Friday as well, but are likely to be done by early afternoon depending on the progression of the system. High pressure should build in on Friday, meaning that conditions improve quickly. Saturday is setting up to be a nice day, with high pressure still in control. You will begin to notice more of a chill by Sunday however, as colder air (relative to normal) finally makes its way into the area.
Sunday is also the time period we are watching as another system begins to make its approach. This one is also likely to pass to our north, but with colder air in place, we could see some rain showers or snow showers during the day as another cold front passes through. Forecast confidence is much lower during this period on precipitation chances.
For the majority of November, warmer than normal days were the rule rather than the exception. As we head through the next seven days, with the exception of Thursday and very early Friday, we look to be at or below the average high temperature for this time of year. As we head into the early part of next week, it will feel like the holiday season is approaching, with highs sharply lower on Sunday, and highs likely to remain in the lower to mid 40s for the forecast period.
The week ahead:
Wednesday: Sunny start turning partly cloudy, with clouds increasing throughout the day. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Wednesday evening in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Thursday: Cloudy to start, with showers possible in the morning and rain arriving from west to east in the early afternoon. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times during the afternoon and evening, and there could also be a rumble of thunder. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain is 90%
Friday: Rain ends early and things clear out by late morning as high pressure builds in. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but daytime highs in the upper 40s. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain is 70% early on.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
Sunday: Chance of rain and snow showers in the morning or early afternoon, otherwise, partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation is 20%
Monday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the lower 30s.
Finally, if you haven’t guessed yet—I’m new around here! My name is Don Bell, and I've been following and forecasting Connecticut weather for most of my life, being born and raised in East Hartford. My bio on the webpage tells you a bit more about me, but I wanted to take a moment to say that I am honored to be a new member of the SCW team, and I'm looking forward to sharing my passion for all things weather here, with you.
My goal is to provide you with informative and quality discussions, as well as interact with you as much as I can. I love to hear feedback and answer questions. If you have anything to say, please do not hesitate to write in the comments space or send me direct messages!
The first of many (I hope :) )
Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr(TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis(GP), and Don Bell(DB).