More heat and humidity is coming to Connecticut. With it, will come the chance for pop up showers and thunderstorms, and we have the extra complication of a backdoor cold front setting itself up in the area.
If that wasn’t enough, we have to watch Memorial Day, as a potential shortwave taps into tropical moisture loosely associated with the critter in the Atlantic. Will Memorial Day be wet? Let’s dive into the all important holiday weekend forecast.
Will we or won’t we? Tomorrow is expected to be another hot day away from the shoreline, where folks will be (mostly) protected from a sea breeze, but will inland areas hit 90 and make this the first heat wave of the year? I think so.
Tomorrow begins with cloudy conditions and the potential for a shower or two. Clearing is expected however, and cloud cover will be critical in determining whether we hit 90. It will be close, but I think the guidance, which has been off a tad on maximum temperatures recently, will be off again. Overall, tomorrow is a fine, albeit more humid, day.
Regardless of what happens on Friday, Saturday is a blowtorch. This is the peak of the heat, as the impressive mid level ridge that has brought this heat flexes its muscle. 850mb temperatures should easily support temperatures between 90-95 in the interior, and with southwesterly flow, humidity will be noticeable. I expect the heat index—which is a measure of how the temperature and humidity feels to a person, will push the mid 90s at times on Saturday. It is a good day for the beach.
Sunday is a tough day to forecast. It’s tough, because we have a backdoor cold front that may make an appearance in our backyard. If you are traveling, the further east you are, the more likely you will be on the “cooler” side of the front. With the front in the area, there is an increased chance of showers during the day.
Timing and location will be key. Right now, the GFS has been showing a more pronounced push of the front, while the Euro has not. I’m rolling with the euro here, as I think the front will be much slower to proceed toward our area. Sunday should be mostly dry, especially the further southwest you are in the state, and I think we push 90 again in urban inland areas, with noticeable but slightly reduced humidity compared to Saturday.
Monday is an even tougher day to predict right now, and here is where we turn to the tropics…
Currently, there is an area of low pressure north of the Bahamas that is slowly organizing. The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring an Invest 91L (essentially an area of interest) for signs of development. The computer guidance has been very good in identifying this area as a potential trouble spot for a while now, and as conditions gradually improve for development, this low is expected to organize enough to become a tropical or subtropical depression, with the NHC giving it an 80% chance of development in the next 48 hours.
What matters to us, is the potential of a mid level shortwave making an approach as tropical moisture from the broader flow of this potential tropical system allows moisture to invade the region. Essentially, this would allow for heavy rain and thunderstorms to materialize on Monday.
This is far from certain, as these types of events are notoriously difficult to predict, and we do not even have an organized system in the Atlantic yet. Either way, I think we will have an increased chance of showers and more clouds, resulting in a cooler day. How much cloud cover and rain will have a strong impact on temperatures. Stay tuned, but at this time I see no need to cancel plans.
The heat and humidity diminishes as a cold front is anticipated to move through the region Tuesday. I must caution however, that things could change significantly depending on the track of the current tropical disturbance.
Right now, it looks like the cold front clears things out, and high pressure builds into the area, resulting in clouds and sun for the period and more comfortable temperatures.
Friday: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers early, otherwise partly cloudy and hot away from the shore. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid 80s at the shore. Chance of showers 30%.
Saturday: Hazy, Hot, and Humid. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in western CT. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland with heat indices in the mid 90s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 80s to 90 inland. Highs in the mid 80s at the shore. Chance of showers 40%.
Monday: Cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and seasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and seasonably warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Final notes—we at SCW hope you all have a safe and happy holiday weekend. Thank you to all of those who have served our nation, and thank you to the family of those that we honor on this Memorial Day Weekend.
If you are traveling out of state and further south to any beaches, watch for the rip currents as this potential tropical system will have impact on waves far from wherever it makes its closest approach. Be sure to keep the kids close at the beach, identify the closest lifeguard wherever you are, and if thunder roars head indoors!
SA will be out of town on Sunday and will have an update Monday, but I am here and will be on call all weekend as I track the little critter in the Atlantic. I will provide updates on the Monday rain potential if needed.
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