Since we last wrote yesterday, we have unfortunately seen the warmer set of solutions for tomorrows storm system become dominant in the guidance, and so have lowered snow totals a bit from our initial forecast yesterday. You can see our newly revised map below.
Here's the 3km NAM I referenced above - should this scenario verify, there will be a brief period of very heavy snow for all tomorrow morning as the strong dynamics in the band would be enough to flush out any warmth at the surface.
The other thing that's worth pointing out about this event is the wind potential. Strong cold air advection on the backside of the system will allow for some gusty winds to develop later in the day; wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range are likely with an outside shot at 50+. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire state by the NWS to cover this risk.
Here's a look at the forecast winds from the GFS and at the SCW impact scale for this event - only change from yesterday was to upgrade the impacts from wind from moderate to high as some strong gusts could cause minor tree damage and perhaps a couple of very scattered power outages.
Until then, Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and thank you for reading SCW!