The mopey weather we have seen today is on its way out, and much nicer times look to follow shortly after! Regarding the holiday weekend, it starts out looking decent, but ends in a bit of a mess. The main players in this mess will be a cold front from Canada and the remnants of a potential tropical system to our south. Models vary in the timing of these two factors, and that is something we will need to watch when forecasting for this weekend. Let’s get started.
A weak cold front will pass through early Wednesday morning, bringing scattered rain and showers before sunrise. This could make your commute to work a little wet, but any lingering rain should move out by mid-morning. Clouds will dissipate by noon, and expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures in the 70s with a NW flow. A chance for a passing shower exists late Wednesday night into Thursday as a very weak secondary front will pass through, otherwise things look clear.
High pressure looks to settle into the Northeast as we head into our weekend. Upper level ridging and a predominantly westerly flow will bring warm weather across New England. Temperatures in the low 80s seem likely across the state, with sunny skies. On Saturday though, a SW flow will bring in more humid air and a chance for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s.
Here is where things get interesting. A cold front is expected to pass through the state sometime Sunday. Now the timing of this cold front is important, since the intensity of the precip will depend on it. The GFS has a weak cold front passing through early Sunday, which would bring mostly showers and rain to CT. The Euro and Canadian models take the cold front through the state later in the day, and this combined with weak CAPE values across Southeastern CT could possibly produce a weak thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will be cooler, especially after the passing of the front, in the high 60s and low 70s.
Following the passage of the cold front, Sunday night some tropical energy ahead of the system in the Southeast looks to interact with the passing cold front. Decent forcing for ascent and the presence of moisture will create a wet system that will slowly move north overnight. This would indicate wet weather moving in early Monday morning and leaving Monday night. Again, this all depends on the timing of the cold front and the strength of the tropical energy, and with many factors at play it makes for a very complex and unpredictable system. I’m not feeling too confident the intensity of the rain, especially with the messy setup and the model variability. With that said, there will definitely be a chance for precipitation. Temperatures look to be in the upper 60s for the majority of the state.
Depending on the track our potential tropical system takes, Tuesday could be either a hit or miss. The GFS and Canadian models take the remnants over CT for Tuesday, suggesting steady rain for the entire day. And the European model suggesting the system will miss us completely, with High pressure to the north forcing it under us before anything meaningful reaches the state. With the uncertainty regarding the track of the system, I’ll play this one safe and suggest a chance for rain on Tuesday, with temperatures in the upper 60s.
Wednesday: Showers tapering off early. Cloudy skies becoming mostly sunny by mid afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s.
Thursday: Sunny skies. Highs in the upper 70s.
Friday: Sunny skies. Highs in the lower 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, highs in the upper 80s.
Sunday: Chance for showers or thundershowers. Highs in the low 70s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Monday: Rain. Highs in the upper 60s.
Tuesday: Chance for rain. Otherwise cloudy. Highs in the 60s.
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!