A messy pattern is expected to remain through this weekend and early next week, with rain and thunderstorms in the near future. By midweek next week, we see an end to the pattern and the chance for some nicer weather. But in the meantime, we will have to continue with the hot and humid.
Moist air from the Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate our region, and the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms has become a routine this summer unfortunately. A cold front approaches CT from the NW, and following the passage of this cold front we should switch from a southerly flow to a NW flow, which would bring a pocket of drier air for tonight. Behind the cold front is a weak ridge which looks to settle into the area for Friday, before we have a system that will develop Saturday. This system will cutoff and spin off New England by midweek, but in the meantime, it will bring wet weather and the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Which has been the story of this summer. Following the exit of the system, a cold front will pass through and see improving weather by Thursday.
Following the passage of the weak cold front tonight, a pocket of drier air will keep conditions tonight more comfortable. A weak ridge will setup over the area, with a predominantly NW flow. Daytime heating will probably spike temperatures around the upper 80s tomorrow, but the formation of afternoon clouds will inhibit us from reaching the 90s.
A 300 mb upper level jet max lies upstream a trough axis in Southern Canada currently. This would promote the intensification and digging out of the trough axis over the next couple of days. This coupled with pressure falls along the SE portion of the system’s track would support the idea of this system heading towards CT. Models show the formation of a low pressure system that moves into the region Saturday morning, and pulling southerly moisture into the state by Saturday afternoon. Daytime heating will support convection as this moisture is pulled onshore, and will cultivate showers and thunderstorms. Primarily the western portions of the state see the highest chance for thunderstorms, particularly in the late afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be below the seasonal average, around the upper 70s.
(Here’s the pattern according to the NAM from Saturday – Wednesday)
Sunday - Wednesday
The low pressure system, appears to cutoff by Sunday over SW New England. Cutoffs are extremely slow moving systems, so based on the cutoff’s position and intensity, we are expecting to see a southerly flow dominate our weather. This will bring in the chance for showers and thunderstorms every day, particularly the afternoon and evening hours. Low clouds and humid weather will unfortunately be the story for the weekend and start of the week. Temperatures will remain around the low 80s for the majority of this time, and may spike a few degrees higher depending on the presence of clouds or not. The chance for showers and thunderstorms decreases as we approach Wednesday, and that is depending on the time it takes for the cutoff to move out of the region.
A cold front passes through and we get a much needed break from the wet weather. A weak ridge builds behind before another system looks to come through.
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. Highs in the 80s. Chance for a passing shower.
Friday: Sunny becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.
Saturday: Showers early in the day leading to thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Sunday: Chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Monday: Chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Chance for shower and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Thursday: Becoming sunny. Highs in the 80s.
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!