Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather, and if you are a Patriots fan…congrats…
The next week will feature chances for snow showers, another arctic blast, and, toward the end of the forecast range, another period of interest. Let’s dive in.
After a period of warmer than normal temperatures and some light snow in some of Connecticut, the entire state returns to colder temperatures and more tranquil conditions tomorrow. It will be a cloudy day, but should be mostly dry during the daylight hours. By late Sunday night/Monday morning, we are watching the secondary push of cold air in the form of a strong cold front and shortwave approaching and passing through. With enough moisture around, we could see scattered snow showers and maybe a couple of squalls.
Edited text: the latest high resolution guidance has been a bit more robust with the snow later tonight and tomorrow. I think most can expect periods of light snow and maybe a heavier squall in spots. Many could see a coating to an inch through tomorrow, with isolated areas seeing a bit more if things break that way. Something worth mentioning.
In that image, just south of Maine, you see the feature that Greg mentioned in his last discussion, the inverted trough. These are usually difficult to forecast in advance, so we are watching whether that shifts further south. It looks unlikely. Regardless, it will be windy and cold on Monday with the chance of snow showers most of the day as some of the coldest weather of the season arrives.
With cold firmly in place, prepare for wind as well. Monday and Tuesday could feature wind chills in the teens and single digits in some spots each afternoon. Bundle up as you head out each day!
High pressure remains in control most of the week, which means mostly quiet conditions outside of an isolated snow shower here or there.
By Wednesday, the temperatures begin to moderate a bit, but we’re still seasonably cold. A weak storm system looks to pass well to our south and west and kind of die out with no impact here.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: by the weekend, we have a period of interest. For the third weekend in a row, some of the longer range guidance--both operational and ensemble--are showing the potential for a storm system impacting our area Saturday (plus or minus a day). This time, a strong system approaches from the Midwest, develops into a coastal low and moves northeast.
Before you get excited—we’ve danced this dance before. For the past two weekends, this far out there were indications that a storm system could provide wintry precipitation. Both ended up as potent rain storms. This far out is an eternity, and as a result, I urge you to use caution if you look at the various computer models, especially operational models (GFS, Euro, CMC). Those model runs are one snapshot of all the potential in one simulation. They are subject to wild changes as they attempt to handle a dynamic pattern and inherently chaotic atmosphere. We’ll be watching.
With guidance all over the place regarding crucial pieces of the puzzle, at this point, I’m not biting on a significant system impacting us until we are much closer in.
Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of show showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%
Monday: Windy, cold, and a chance of snow showers and squalls. Light accumulation possible in heavier squalls. Otherwise, partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 20s with wind chills in the teens to single digits in colder/windier spots. Lows in the single digits to teens. Chance of precipitation 60%
Tuesday: Cold. Partly cloudy with a small chance of flurries. Highs in the low to mid 20s. Lows in the single digits to mid teens. Wind chills similar to Monday. Chance of precipitation 10%
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s in the hills to mid 30s.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Saturday: SCW period of interest. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of wintry precipitation 20%. These odds will increase or decrease through the week based on pattern/storm evolution.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and thank you for reading. Please like, share, comment, retweet, and ask questions!