Today was a lot more cloudy than anticipated, with easterly flow leaving us socked in with clouds and cool conditions. As I mentioned in my weekend post, much of the week looks quiet. However, we have unsettled weather that will cover the first part of the forecast period.
The next two days look wet, as a warm front and system approaches the region. Tomorrow looks chilly, raw, and wet, with heavy rain and some thunderstorms possible throughout the day. There is a low, but nonzero, risk of strong to severe storms. The main story however will be the rain, which may cause some flash flooding in spots where the heavy rain persists. Overall, I expect rain on the order of 1-3" tomorrow.
Wednesday looks drier for more of the day, but toward the afternoon and evening hours that system approaches, bringing another chance of heavy rain and strong to severe storms. Wednesday will feel like summer's last gasp, with above normal highs and humidity, but once the system passes we'll be right back to seasonable fall conditions. The latest high resolution NAM shows this well. Heavy rain tomorrow followed by a chance of storms later on Wednesday.
After the shortwave and attendant front push through the region late Wednesday and early Thursday, high pressure settles back in and we should gradually clear out. Expect temperatures closer to normal for the year--upper 60s to low 70s--and partly sunny skies. Watch how the latest GFS shows mid level temperatures rise and fall over this part of the forecast.
The weekend and start to next week (October!) looks fantastic. High pressure should stay in control, bringing dry and fall like conditions throughout the state. No freezes are on the horizon, but we should see crisp cool nights and the seasonal fog usual spots see.
Tuesday: Rain, heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy and seasonable. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of showers early 10%.
Friday: Partly cloudy and seasonable. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
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