I’m sure we all wonder when the fall weather is going to arrive, and fortunately for us it finally has! But first a little on what was Hurricane Michael. The remnants of a record-breaking-storm Michael are just moving off the US coast, leaving a huge trail of destruction across a large portion of the country. This was the fourth strongest hurricane to ever hit the United States mainland, with sustained winds at landfall capping off an extraordinary 155 mph. Michael also traveled over 1000 miles in less than two days, which indicates how incredibly fast moving of a storm it was. Estimated damage costs are still early, but projected reports forecast costs to exceed 30 billion dollars. Here in CT we got our share of Michael, but towards the end of the hurricane’s life. Bridgeport received 1.83 inches of rain while Sterling clocked in at 2.88 inches of rain.
Now, let’s get into our weather. It has been a humid and rainy start to fall, nobody can deny that. We desperately have been waiting for seasonal weather, and this next couple days it looks like our prayers have been answered. Dips in the Jet Stream over the next few days will bring cooler, dry air from Canada that will finally get rid of the humid, wet weather that has dictated our area for the past couple weeks.
The last of Michael quickly moves offshore, and we have an established NW flow following the passage of a cold front early this morning. We have a weak ridge building in today at 500 mb, and dew point depressions indicate seasonal, dry air being advected into the region at 850 mb.
We will be watching a trough that is developing over the Great Plains that will be a threat for some rain on Saturday, and some cooler air that will roll down in from Canada for the weekend.
Following the passage of Michael, expect windy conditions to persist throughout the day, and weaken by the evening. This is due to the low center of pressure associated with Michael, and the current surface maps indicate strong pressure gradients that would contribute to the strong winds. Since this is a quick moving system, thick lower level clouds from Michael should dissipate and be replaced with sun and cumulus clouds by the afternoon. Temperatures will be cool, dry, and nice for a fall day.
A weak shortwave will develop off of a very strong jet streak in the upper air maps (250 mb). Strong upper level divergence will contribute to convergence at the surface, and presence of moisture at the surface will act as a trigger mechanism to produce an area of showers. A lack of decent thermal forcing and low precipitable water values will inhibit development of heavy rain. Cool temperatures from a Canadian airmass will engulf New England, and this will make for below seasonal temperatures, particularly the Litchfield hills that could see temps sink to the upper 40s.
A ridge builds in behind our shortwave for Saturday, and we’ll see temperatures climb to the mid 50s for the region, and afternoon cumulus clouds that will build in from the NW.
A low pressure system to our North will develop and strengthen in Southern Canada. The merging of this low and a weak shortwave will bring cloudy and wet conditions for New England during the day Monday. That evening, a weak cold front will pass through, and we will see a switch to a NW flow that will bring subsidence and building high pressure for the next few days.
Tuesday – Friday
A ridge builds in, and cooler temperatures will follow as well. There is a slight chance for rain Thursday, but models as of now keep a small system to our south, keeping us dry. Temperatures will be in the 50s for these days, and dry Canadian air will dictate our flow.
Friday: Mostly sunny besides some afternoon clouds. Highs in the low 60s. Winds 10-15 mph, occasionally gusting to 20 mph.
Saturday: Cloudy. Cool. Showers, ending in the evening. Highs in the lower 50s, and upper 40s for the Litchfield hills.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Monday: Highs in the upper 50s. A little humid. Slight chance for a passing shower, otherwise cloudy.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Cooler.
Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather and enjoy the rest of your day!