It’s decidedly fall-like today, with a cool start and crisp feeling in the air lingering into this afternoon. Our coldest evening of the fall so far is on tap for tonight, followed by a warming trend to well above normal temperatures by the middle of next week. A cutoff low or coastal storm may impact the area towards the end of next week and bring some much-needed rain to the area.
Cool temps expected as strong high pressure is above us. Expecting temps to make it down into the low to mid 30s across most of the state, with some freezes in the usual cooler valleys and slightly warmer temps along the immediate shoreline. As such, frost advisories are posted for the portions of the state that have not yet seen a widespread freeze and are away from the immediate shoreline. Those advisories are shown below A widespread freeze has already been recorded in Hartford, Windham and northern Litchfield counties, so those areas are excluded from the temperature products until next spring. Remember to protect sensitive plants or bring them indoors!
Temps will quickly rebound tomorrow morning under full sunshine. Highs will top out around 60, a few degrees below normal, but it will be quite pleasant to be out with the abundant sunshine. Another chilly night is expected tomorrow as clear skies and the strong high will allow temps to rapidly drop after sunset; most locations should end up a few degrees warmer than this evening’s lows. That will result in lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Sunday will follow a near identical pattern to Saturday; a cold start followed by rebounding temperatures under full sunshine. We’ll see highs near normal in the mid 60s.
A weak front moves through Sunday evening and could bring some showers to the area, otherwise, the story for early this week is a strong ridge parked over our area. This ridge will bring well above normal temperatures to the area, with highs well up into the 70s from Monday-Wednesday. We could even see highs approach 80 on Tuesday in the CT River valley!
Uncertainty in the guidance about what happens here. Both models have upper level energy amplifying in the area towards the end of the week, but the Euro is much faster in developing a low vs. the GFS, which allows the low to hang back and does not move it into the area until next weekend. The model images below show the surface pressure on the GFS and Euro for 8 AM next Saturday; the Euro already has a well-defined coastal storm to our southeast, while the GFS is still a weak strung-out wave of low pressure.
Saturday: Cold start with morning lows in the low to mid 30s, then sunny, with highs in the low 60s.
Sunday: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%
Friday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Have a wonderful weekend and thank you for reading SCW!