We've had generally seasonal to above normal weather over the last week or so, with an Indian-Summer like feeling in the air. This weekend, however, will give us a sharp reminder that fall is the prelude to winter, with widespread below-freezing temperatures expected across the state this weekend, resulting in the end of the growing season for most if not all of the state.
A cold front will roll in this evening and overnight, resulting in much cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, about ten degrees lower than today. Cloud cover will be variable, with some areas seeing close to full sunshine at times, while others are in close to full cloud cover, as varying intensities of upper level lift move across the region. While widespread precipitation is not expected, I wouldn't rule out a shower or two, especially this evening with the passing of the cold front.
Still colder air moves in Saturday night as a highly anomalous trough moves over the region and remains for most of Sunday as well, resulting in December-like temperatures across most of the state. A freeze watch has been issued for all of Southern Connecticut from the NWS for Saturday night, and I expect one to be issued for northern portions of the state with the afternoon updates. Lows Saturday night look to be in the low to mid 30s, except a bit warmer on the immediate coastline.
Sunday will be quite chilly, with highs only expected to reach the mid to upper 40s for most of the state, fifteen to twenty degrees below normal for the time of year. Again, while precipitation is not likely, some showers could develop from atmospheric lift, and there is also the possibility of some lake-effect streamers working their way east across the state if wind conditions are right. Considering the temperature profile for Sunday, it is not unreasonable to think that if conditions were right, some flakes could fly in isolated areas of the state, especially in the evening and overnight hours when temperatures drop into the 30s and 20s. Thankfully, this will be a non-event as far as impacts are concerned(Perhaps a 10% chance of a dusting in an elevated area or two, if that), but is a reminder of what is just around the corner.
Sunday night, we will most likely see a freeze across the entire state, with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s expected.
Here's a look at the forecast lows for Sunday morning, the forecast highs from Sunday, and the forecast lows for Monday morning from the GFS model.
Aside from some possible widely scattered showers, a dry forecast is expected through mid-week next week, before some possible rain from a system on Thursday should it shift south from it's current position.
Saturday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, chilly and windy, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Chance of precipitation is 20%
Saturday night: Cold, with lows in the low to mid 30s. A freeze is possible.
Sunday: A slight chance of flurries or showers, otherwise, mostly sunny and cold, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 15%.
Sunday night: Very cold, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A freeze is likely.
Monday: Mostly sunny and cold, with highs in the upper 40s.
Tuesday: Sunny, with highs around 60.
Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Stay warm this weekend, and thanks for reading SCW!