Short Term: Friday-Monday
Today felt more like September than November across the state as high temperatures soared into the 70s. Currently, a cold front is pushing east into the area, bringing a strong but quick moving high pressure along with it. This will allow for some radiational cooling tonight and for temperatures to drop to near or slightly below normal levels by tomorrow morning, resulting in low temps tomorrow morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most.
Temperatures warm further overnight Sunday into Monday as we are solidly warm-sectored ahead of the next cold front. Expect temps to steadily rise throughout the evening and into Monday, with highs once again approaching the 70 degree mark on Monday for what may be the final time this year. While I don’t think we’ll quite get there, Monday will be very warm for the date, with highs generally in the upper 60s for most.
A frontal passage moves through Monday afternoon and evening accompanying our next cold shot which should bring another round of showers to the state - not expecting anything crazy but could see a couple of heavy showers where instability is best. Temperatures drop quickly behind the front and we’re back into the lower 40s by Tuesday morning. Here's a look at the frontal passage on Monday as well as high temps Monday afternoon and low temps Tuesday morning, all from the GFS.
A sprawling area of high pressure looks to move across much of the country by mid next week, which should bring calm weather and the coldest air of the season to date for New England. The GFS shows a system developing on the back side of the cold front as it pushes south of us that could bring some rain showers on Tuesday, but it has steadily been trending weaker and does not have support from the other guidance or the ensembles and so I’ll stick with a dry forecast for the time being. As currently modeled, temps continue to drop throughout the week, with highs in the low 50s on Tuesday, upper 40s on Wednesday and Thursday and only in the low to mid 40s by Friday. Lows will generally be in the 30s and we should see a freeze by Thursday night for at least the inland areas and, depending on which models you believe, possibly for the coastline and CT river valley as well. The GFS and Euro both reload the cold going into next weekend albeit at slightly different times; the GFS keeps us with daytime highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Friday while the Euro keeps us only in the low to mid 30s on Saturday. Given the calendar, the lead time and the propensity for models to back off on cold shots as we get closer that we’ve seen this fall, will keep the forecast a bit warmer for now but keep an eye on future model cycles as we move through the weekend into next week. Precipitation looks non-existent through the period.
Here's the high as shown on the GFS.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 50s.
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: Showers likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low 50s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s.
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Finally, we’re starting to ramp up for winter here. We’re currently reviewing all of the data and waiting for a few key readings to come in, and we are hoping to have the winter forecast out by mid-month. I promise it’ll be worth the wait!
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!