Quiet weather across the state today will continue for the near term, but things become much more active in the long term as two systems look to bring precipitation to the state towards the end of this week and into the weekend. While there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding both systems, it is becoming more likely that wintry weather will return to at least part of the state for the first time in almost two months.
Quiet weather will persist through most of the week, with slightly above normal temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday giving way to slightly below normal temperatures on Thursday. That translates to highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temps slipping down to near the freezing mark on Thursday. Should see partly to mostly sunny skies throughout the period, with clouds moving in on Thursday afternoon in advance of the first system in the extended.
The first system we’re watching moves into the state late Thursday night courtesy of a weak upper level trough swinging a system through the upper midwest and then into our area. Generally looking at light to moderate QPF amounts, with the guidance consensus being somewhere around a quarter of an inch. That said, there has been a trend on most models today to strengthen this system a bit, and I would not be surprised to see it continue given similar past setups. So while I would not expect a significant storm now, the chance of a more impactful system cannot be completely ruled out.
As it stands now, however, light snow breaks out across the state early Friday morning, quickly mixing with and changing to rain on the coastline but remaining snow through at least part of the morning commute further inland before eventually flipping to rain across the state. Some light accumulations are possible, especially inland, and the timing is such that some school delays wouldn’t be surprising. We’ll have some more details on this system as we move through the week, but generally a minor to moderate event appears to be in the cards.
Here’s a look at this system on the GFS.
Saturday will begin as the transition day between our two systems. Chilly temps and mostly cloudy skies will be in the cards, with highs only in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Models then bring a strong system up the coastline Saturday evening, with precipitation lasting through Saturday night into Sunday. Unsurprisingly given the time frame, there is a large spread in possible tracks among the models, with solutions including warning level snowfall, a messy wintry mix, and mostly rain all still on the table. We have seen a trend over the past few cycles towards a more amplified system, which would result in a further northwest track and thus a warmer and wetter solution for the area. For now, the fact that all guidance and all ensembles are in remarkable agreement that a system is coming makes me confident in some sort of storm for later this weekend, but track, timing and precipitation type are still very much up in the air. Stay tuned.
Here’s a look at the individual members of the Euro ensemble - notice the wide spread in track between the members, with solutions ranging from classic coastal tracks off Cape Cod to warmer tracks across various portions of New England and New York. The mean is a combination of all of the above, with snow to mix to rain being the net result, but that just goes to show how many possibilities remain on the table. We’ll have more on this system later in the week as the models begin to converge on a solution.
Colder arctic air flows in behind the system, with a chance of some snow showers lingering behind the cold front. Regardless of how Sunday’s system goes, it looks like we’ll see a dump of arctic air behind it, so expect chilly temps for the start of next week…
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Thursday: Partly sunny, then clouds building late. Highs in the lower 30s.
Friday: Rain and snow likely, especially in the morning. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of snow late. Highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: Rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow likely. Highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday: A slight chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Have a great evening and thank you for reading SCW!