It’s a beautiful day outside – just a few clouds below us, temps around -65f, and full sunshine. Get out there and enjoy it – don’t forget to bundle up! Oh wait, I forgot I’m at 35,000 feet on a plane and not in Connecticut – guessing my thermometer is just a wee bit off J
Anyway, still a beautiful day on tap for today down at ground level – highs should cross the 50 degree mark this afternoon and given that I can currently see the ground out the window (and confirmed by the satellite), we should have mostly sunny skies today with just a couple of clouds rolling by as the day goes on. A truly spectacular day to get some spring skiing in in January, go on a hike, or just enjoy the warmth and sunshine. Enjoy it while it lasts, because as GP alluded to on Tuesday, winter isn’t over just yet.
Saturday night - Sunday
Weak frontal passage takes place later this evening which will bring a round of showers to the area. Not expecting any heavy rain, but the umbrella might be a good thing to bring along if you’re going to be out late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Should have showers out of the state by the mid-morning at the latest which will set us up for gradual clearing throughout the day. Temps will once again be warm – highs a few degrees on either side of 50 look to be a good bet.
Weak coastal system forms along the frontal boundary that stalls out to our south tomorrow and heads northeast, passing southeast of our area Monday evening into Tuesday morning. While yesterdays models were more enthusiastic about the storm being far enough northwest to bring some snow into the state, the overnight guidance was generally weak enough to keep the system far enough out to sea that we only see some snow showers from an inverted trough feature on the far west flank of the system. However, given the abysmal performance of the models thus far this season and the general trend for storms to move westward at close range this season as the dominant Western Atlantic Ridge(WAR) becomes “recognized” by the guidance, I’m not ready to write this system off just yet. As it stands now, don’t expect anything more than some snow showers and perhaps an inch or two of high-ratio fluff in the spots where any heavier pockets of snow develop, but keep an eye on the forecast as this isn’t that far away from having some impacts to the commute Monday afternoon.
Here’s a look at the system on yesterdays midday GFS and the more recent overnight GFS – notice the eastern shift that brings us out of steadier snows.
Below normal temps continue for Wednesday as we’re under high pressure – look for sunny skies with highs in the upper 20s. We’ll warm up for Thursday as southwest flow brings warmer air into the state, should see highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Attention is then directed to our next system that will arrive towards the end of the week. As of now, this looks like a messy system that could bring a rain/snow mix to the area, but given we’re a week away and have a storm between now and then we’ll refrain from speculating on that one too much until we get this first system out of the way – one storm at a time is one of the best rules in forecasting. Very generally, looks like we’ll see another followup storm developing on the backside of a frontal passage, but this one has some more energy to work with than our next one as currently modeled. Stay tuned but don’t get too excited yet – a week is forever in model land.
Here's a look at the system on the CMC - as the system strengthens, that rain/snow line is pushed south and eventually we see accumulating snow across the entire state.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Sunday: A chance of showers, then clearing, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: A chance of snow in the afternoon, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: A chance of snow showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 20.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Friday: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!