Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
We're in the middle of an extremely warm start to December, and, unfortunately for winter lovers, it looks to get worse before it gets better. We'll see highs approaching record levels this weekend with temperatures more than twenty degrees above normal, with highs more typical of mid October than mid December. A storm system will cut to our west early next week, and bring some much needed rain to our area, but it's track and intensity(and thus what happens after it) remain up in the air.
Tomorrow(Thursday) will bring mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures than we've seen the last couple of days, as highs will reach the mid to upper 50s across most of the state tomorrow, around fifteen degrees above normal for date. Friday and Saturday will be very similar, as highs creep up a bit each day to top out in the upper 50s on Friday and near 60 on Saturday. Saturday could see some more cloud cover, especially later in the day, but no precipitation is expected and thus it looks like an incredible day to be outside.
Sunday is a bit more uncertain, as some guidance has been pushing a backdoor cold front into at least part of the state during the day, keeping highs down from the near record levels that we'd see otherwise. In reviewing the new 0z guidance, the Canadian model did back away from the backdoor making it this far Southwest and moved towards the record warmth shown on the GFS, however, I have not yet seen the 0z Euro so can't comment on if it too capitulated to the GFS. The 12z Euro kept temperatures around 50 across the state, which, while warm, is not the all out blowtorch that the Canadian and GFS are showing. For now, I'm going with the blowtorch scenario, but will keep an eye on guidance and adjust if needed.
Thus, as of now, I'm predicting we'll see near record warmth on Sunday, with departures as high as twenty five degrees above normal. Here's a look at forecast high temps on Sunday and departures from normal on the 0z GFS.
The heat continues Sunday night and into Monday as our first system of interest approaches. With no blocking to our north, it's clear that this will be a lakes cutter, and thus, will result in all rain for our area. Guidance differs on the intensity of the system, however, with some of the models keeping it rather weak and strung out, while others bring it as a single consolidated low into the lakes. While the immediate result is more vs less rain for us, the end result is more significant. A stronger low would dislodge the ridge above us and pull it southeast, resulting in a path for colder air to move into the Northeast without facing as much resistance from the ridge. A weaker low would essentially keep the current pattern in place, and we would continue to see much above normal temperatures until a stronger system arrives a few days later to try again. Some of the guidance tries to turn that second system into a snowstorm which is a result of the first storm pulling the ridge out of position and creating a psuedoblock, but that's way out in time and thus we won't go into that in any more detail as of now. If it's still a possibility as we get inside 5-6 days, you know that here is where you will find the most reliable coverage for that and every other winter event, so hang tight for now and when we think it's something worth talking about, we'll talk about it :)
In the more immediate future, however, is the rain from this first system. Guidance is in good agreement on bringing in rain Monday afternoon and it being in and out relatively quickly, with the state dry by daybreak Tuesday at the latest. It will be a quick yet heavy hit, with most of the state looking at about half to three quarters of an inch of rain when averaging the three global models. Somewhat cooler air follows behind the system, although it will take until later next week for any more substantial cold to propagate its way eastward, should it do so at all.
Here's a look at this system at 7 PM Monday night on the GFS and Canadian models. The Euro is further south with the system and almost tries to redevelop it into a late-blooming coastal storm instead of a pure cutter, but I'm not so sure I believe that scenario as of right now. Regardless, the end result for us will be nothing but rain barring a drastic shift in modeling.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 50s.
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s.
Saturday: Partly sunny, then becoming mostly cloudy later in the day, with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Monday: Rain likely in the afternoon, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Tuesday: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers to start, then quickly becoming sunny, with highs in the low 50s. Chance of rain is 15%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Enjoy this abnormally warm weather and thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!