As we mentioned in our update on Wednesday, we’ve been watching an inverted trough feature for tomorrow that looks to develop in the area and bring some snow to the region. Over the last 24-36 hours or so, models have come into agreement on a slightly stronger trough combined with better dynamics aloft, and the end result is the potential for a slightly higher impact event in terms of total accumulations. Unfortunately, pinpointing where that will be is going to be difficult.
An inverted trough, especially one of this variety(a NORLUN trough), is generally characterized by a thin band of moderate to heavy snow, diminishing rapidly to light snow or even flurries on either side of it. The area which ends up under the meat of the band can pile up quite a bit of snow in a short time, while areas just a few miles away can get almost nothing. Combine that with the fact that they are notoriously difficult to model, and it’s a forecasters nightmare.
Here’s a look at the forecast liquid equivalent as snow maps from some of our forecast guidance. 2.5mm = 0.1” liquid == ~1” snow. They shouldn’t be used verbatim, especially in a situation like this one, but they’re a good visual as to what each model is “thinking”
Considering this, our forecast map eschews specific ranges in favor of more of a summary of the likely and possible situations. Here it is below.
If you’re going to be out and about tomorrow, pay attention to your surroundings, as only short distances will separate light snow from travel impacting moderate to heavy snow. Squalls will certainly cause travel impacts in spots, so stay alert and be prepared to slow down if needed!
We’ll be updating throughout the day tomorrow on our Facebook page(www.facebook.com/southernconnecticutweather) , so make sure to watch for updates and stay informed. Thanks for reading SCW!