We’ve got quite a few showers across the state today, with the southeastern corner of the state consistently seeing the heaviest rain throughout the day so far as a train of cells moves north off the water. Showers will continue for the next few hours before exiting to the north and east. A second batch approaches from the mid atlantic for late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here's an animation of the progression from the HRRR.
A cold front then approaches for Monday. Guidance differs on the timing of the front, but I will lean towards a later arrival, as it is common for cold fronts to get “hung up” as they are travelling across central NY towards our area. Given the moisture in the airmass, the energy associated with the front should be sufficient to spark a line of showers and thunderstorms as it moves through Monday evening or overnight. It’s a bit far out to start looking the details for severe weather, but the SPC has highlighted our area to be at risk for severe weather on Monday. We’ll keep a close eye on it and keep you informed!
Here's the forecast humidity for Monday(the warmest day) and a very long-range simulated radar image for Monday night, both from the NAM. This is to illustrate the potential for strong storms and not to provide any sort of guidance to locations - it's much too far out for that!
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, slowly clearing, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!