Today and Tonight
It’s a warm and very humid afternoon across the state today, with temperatures generally in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s. That combination, along with generally cloudy skies, is making for a rather muggy feeling in the air today, and has also touched off some showers across the state. Right now, we are seeing showers mainly in Litchfield county, but I expect to see additional development across the state this evening. Guidance has begun to suggest a stronger area of rain coming through the state overnight and then again tomorrow morning; given the current airmass, there is the potential for very heavy rainfall rates in any cells that do develop and flash flooding is possible in areas where cells persist for an extended period of time. The northwestern half of the state is currently in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, the primary threat is high winds.
Here is an animation from the hires NAM showing the initial development of a few thunderstorms, followed by a more widespread area of rain tonight into early tomorrow morning.
The chance of rain diminishes throughout the morning tomorrow, and hopefully by the second half of the day we should see some clearing as a cold front moves through and drops humidity levels down to much more comfortable levels for later in the day. Expect temps in the low to mid 80s; cooler on the coastline and warmer inland. The forecast is almost reversed for Sunday; the day should start pleasant, but a chance of showers is possible in the afternoon as another bit of energy moves through to our north. Temperatures should be a hair cooler than Saturday, but still pleasant in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and humidity will be low. Overall, while there will be some wet weather around this weekend, it will not be a washout by any means and there should be plenty of opportunities to enjoy the outdoors!
Next week looks to start out unsettled as a trough moves into the region, bringing several weaker impulses through the state that will each touch off a round of showers. I’m not expecting any significant rain, but each afternoon from Monday to Wednesday will at least bring a chance of some scattered showers to the area. Tuesday appears to have the most widespread coverage as of now, with Monday and Wednesday focusing more on northern areas, but again, overall coverage will likely be light, with many areas seeing a three day rainfall total of zero. Otherwise, besides the rain, expect seasonably cool temperatures, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s.
Here is a look at the showers for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday on the GFS. Wednesday's showers are currently modeled to the north of us, but I think there is at least a chance that we could see some develop further south, so kept low chance pops in the forecast.
As the previously mentioned trough moves out, warmer weather returns to close out the week, with a system passing to our north. Currently, we’re modeled to remain dry, but firmly in the warm sector, resulting in another round of high humidity and warm temps. We’ll keep you posted as this system begins to come into range on the guidance.
Saturday: Showers likely in the morning, then clearing to partly sunny skies by the afternoon hours. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: A chance of afternoon showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!