Currently, we have seasonably cool temps across the state this morning, with readings generally ranging from the mid-40s to the lower 50s; slightly warmer temps right on the immediate coastline. The day will start pleasant, but clouds will quickly build in ahead of our next system that will bring another round of rain to the state tonight through Tuesday.
An initial primary low ahead of a warm front tracks into the great lakes today, bringing initial showers to the state later this afternoon and evening. Guidance differs on the speed at which the showers will move into the area; the GFS is a bit quicker than the Euro and brings showers into western areas by the early afternoon, while the Euro waits until the mid afternoon or early evening to begin precipitation. Favoring the GFS in this scenario. After the initial rain tonight into early tomorrow morning, we may see a break in the action as a secondary low develops along the coastline to bring us another round of showers later tomorrow into Tuesday. While I don’t expect any crazy precipitation rates with this system, 48+ hours of at least some precipitation in the area will amount to a decent total; the GFS suggests .75” to 1.25” of rain, while the Euro is a bit wetter in the 1-2” range. Will lean towards the drier GFS for now as we’ve seen a trend of systems coming in a bit drier than forecast so far this warm season (and generally, unless there is a specific reason to support QPF on the high side of guidance, it’s good to be a bit more conservative).
As far as temps go, expect slightly below normal temps today in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then below normal for Monday with highs in the mid-60s and well below normal on Tuesday with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Here’s an animation of this system from the GFS.
Given that we’ve entered meteorological summer, I’m sure the question that’s on many of your minds is “when does it warm up?” While the mid-range forecast is still below normal, with Wednesday only staying in the low 60s and Thursday in the mid 60s, there is a potential light at the end of the tunnel, as guidance has begun to shift towards a warmer look in the long range. While I don’t see any signs of big heat on the horizon, the trough that has been generally stuck in our area for the last couple of weeks looks to trend towards a warmer look starting about a week from now, with some signs of a ridge starting to build way out towards the end of the model runs. However, while the look is promising, I caution that we have seen this before; earlier in May, it looked as if we were transitioning towards a warmer pattern, but instead, we saw a few days of warmth and then went back to a mean trough in the area as the dominant pattern. Perhaps this time is different, but as always with a pattern change, a healthy dose of skepticism is advised.
In the meantime, temps moderate towards near normal levels towards the end of the forecast period. Next weekend looks like it could be potentially unsettled once again depending on how far south a cold front to our north can drop, but at this lead time and with no agreement on the models for specific threats, will just go with a slight chance of showers for now and let later forecasters work out the details there.
Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday: Showers likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 60s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 60s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Have a great rest of your weekend and thank you for reading SCW!