While today’s severe thunderstorms were, by and large, a non-event across the state, most areas did pick up some much-needed rain. Unfortunately, significant rain continues to be absent from the forecast, although there are some chances for showers and thunderstorms in there.
The overall pattern for the weekend into next week remains relatively stable. The ridge to our west continues to remain abnormally strong, leading to a “heat dome” in place and searing temperatures across the Midwest and Plains. Further east, however, the trough on the other side of the ridge is placed over our area, which funnels cooler air from our Northwest (Specifically, northern Canada and the Arctic) down into the Northeast, much like we see in an arctic shot during the winter. While bits of high pressure can “break off” from the dome and move east, resulting in a warm period of a day or two here in Connecticut, until the fundamental placement of the ridge shifts, we will continue to escape the brunt of any prolonged significant heat.
To show this, take a look at the two maps below. You can see the ridge over the Midwest and plains, and then notice the dip in the heights over the Northeast. As expected, when you compare to the modeled temperature anomalies, you see above normal temperatures under the ridge, whereas in New England, the cool northwest flow keeps temps right around normal or even a bit below normal.
Cooler air moves in Friday evening, and the general pattern depicted above looks to hold right through the end of the forecast period. We’ll see plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend into next week, with temps generally in the mid 80s; perhaps a degree or two warmer on Saturday and a degree or two cooler on Sunday. Generally low humidity throughout the period, once we get through tomorrow, will make for a beautiful stretch of summer!
Two chances for precipitation in the forecast; a slight chance of some showers and storms tomorrow afternoon, and another shot at some convection later Monday into Tuesday. That second system could have a bit more of a steady rain element to it if the GFS were to be believed, but considering that the general pattern has been to track rain events north of us over the past several weeks, and that the Euro already shows that happening, I’m not convinced until it happens.
Here are the dailies:
Friday: A slight chance of shwoers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly sunny and hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Finally, a quick housekeeping item; to better accommodate work schedules, I’ll be taking over Thursday forecasts from Don, who will be moving to Sunday. Greg will continue to forecast on Tuesday. We hope that this switch allows us to have a more reliable schedule going forward!
Have a great weekend, and thanks for reading SCW!