An area of strong thunderstorms is beginning to develop to our west, and short range guidance suggests that these cells will coalesce into a more defined squall line as they approach our area later tonight. As is typical in a frontal passage, western areas will have the best chance of seeing severe weather, and as such the SPC has issued a Slight Risk for the northwestern third of the state, with a severe thunderstorm watch potentially being issued later this afternoon(Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the state excluding New London and Windham counties). Strong winds are the primary threat with these storms, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Storms will generally enter the state after nightfall, although we could see some isolated showers beforehand, and I expect most activity to weaken to sub-severe levels by approximately midnight.
Here’s a look at the HRRR’s simulated radar for the rest of the evening.
A mixed bag once again for your weekend as a frontal boundary stalls over the area for Saturday; this will bring showers and thunderstorms to the state tomorrow along with a continuation of the muggy weather. The front slides south for Sunday, and as of right now looks like it will move far enough out of our way that we will stay mostly dry, but a chance of showers is still possible with southern areas being the most likely to see some precipitation. Regardless, Sunday will be the coolest day we’ve seen in a while, with highs topping out in the low 70s.
Generally cooler and drier for most of the upcoming week, although heat and humidity will return to some extent Tuesday into Wednesday as a system passes to our west and puts us back in the warm sector. That system also looks to bring us some rain on Wednesday; the GFS is a bit more aggressive with steady rain throughout much of the day while the Euro advertises showers. Could be another round of severe thunderstorms later Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west, but far too early to speculate on the details of what that might look like. Behind the front, cooler temperatures look likely moving into next weekend, but how long they will last is unclear.
Here’s a look at the frontal system on the GFS.
Saturday: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 70s. Chance of rain is 40%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!