It’s been full on deep winter these last past ten days, with three significant snow events as well as a couple smaller refreshers and wall to wall cold. Thankfully for us lovers of winter(or unfortunately for those who are wishing for the 80s and summertime), that trend looks to continue over the forecast period, with below normal temperatures expected throughout as well as several possible chances for some snow. Let’s jump right into the dailies, but if you just want a quick look, a condensed forecast is at the end of the update.
A short break from the cold is in order for tomorrow, although temps will still be below normal. Model consensus is for temps to jump up to around the freezing mark, although partly to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of some flurries/snow showers, especially in NW sections, will make it seem very much like winter still. No significant accumulations expected with the snow showers/flurries, although a quick dusting is possible in areas where slightly enhanced intensity develops. Expecting this to be localized at best however.
An arctic boundary swoops in from the NW overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing with it an end to the temperature reprieve and the next chance for accumulating snow in the forecast. A band of intial overrunning precipitation is expected to form along the front Wednesday night, before pressing SE and weakening into Thursday morning. As modeled, far NW areas of the state look to pick up 2-4” of snow as they will likely catch the edge of the overrunning band, but as the front slides SE, the rest of the state looks to get in on the fun as well. Model consensus is for a light event of no more than 1-2” at the max, but considering how we have seen these other fronts perform so far this winter(wetter and more intense than modeled), would not rule out a brief period of heavy snow and perhaps some isolated accumulations of up to 3” or so, especially in eastern areas. In general though, expecting a coating to two inches for most of the state Thursday morning, with the NW corner seeing 2-4” from overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. The morning commute may be a bit tricky in areas where heavier snow is falling, and some school delays are possible. Compared to our last couple of storms, no big deal, but could cause a bit of a nuisance on the roads, so make sure to check back tomorrow(Wednesday) for any updates. Here’s a look at this band of precip on the RGEM model, notice how it is impacting NWCT for the longest period of time before it slides SE and gives most of the state a lesser impact.
Friday morning looks to be a bonechiller, with widespread below zero temps expected everywhere except perhaps the shoreline. Combined with the wind chill which is expected to be in the negative teens in most areas, it will be dangerously cold outside for exposed skin, so make sure to bundle up when heading out! It is likely that we will see wind chill advisories issued from the NWS. Here’s a look at the forecast minimum temps and wind chill from the GFS model.
Saturday to Tuesday
Oh boy, here we go again…
Modeling is in agreement on showing a snow event somewhere in this period, and unlike Thursday’s relatively minor event, this has the POTENTIAL to be a significant event. We put potential in caps because we are still five days out, and at this range anything is simply a potential until we get to around 72-96 hours out when we can start to nail down more details. That said, models have come into excellent agreement on the fact that there will be a prolonged event in the northeast somewhere during this period, which will feature an initial band of overrunning precipitation followed by a developing coastal storm. However, where the placement of these features will be is still up for debate. The 12z GGEM placed the overrunning well to our south and the coastal well out to sea, and the end result was no impact at all for the state, while the new 0z GFS now places the band of overrunning ontop of us and then is stronger and further west with the coastal, leading to a “double whammy” of snow (and icing in southern areas). At this range, I am leaning towards the further north solution simply due to the fact that overrunning events often trend north due to the confluence and surface high pressure being weaker than modeled and models gradually realizing that fact, and while not incredibly likely, it is possible that the event could trend so far north as to be rain for our area. It is also just as likely, however, that the event is able to slide to our south, and the end result is partly cloudy skies, so don’t go running for that bread and milk just yet. As far as timing goes, most models center the overrunning activity around Sunday and the coastal from Sunday night into Monday(and extending into early Tuesday on some models), but keep in mind that timing can and will change easily at this range. If this threat still is legimiate over the next few days, we will start to nail down some of the details alter in the week, but for now, just be aware that the potential for a storm is there.
Temperatures will depend greatly on the eventual track that any storm takes, but in general, expecting below normal temps throughout the period.
For now, will go with a 40% chance of precipitation for Saturday night through Tuesday with 50% Sunday and will reassess in the next update. Here’s images of the 0z GFS and 12z GGEM valid 7 PM Sunday night, notice the stark differences in placement of the precip.
Wednesday: A chance of snow showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with temps in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Snow in the morning, otherwise, partly cloudy, with temps in the low 30s crashing into the teens. Chance of precipitation is 70%. C-2” for most, 2-4” far NW hills.
Friday: Clear and COLD, highs in the teens and AM lows below 0!
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 20s, chance of PM snow, chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: A chance of snow, otherwise partly cloudy, highs in the mid 20s, chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: A chance of snow, otherwise mostly cloudy, highs in the upper teens to lower 20s, chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday: A chance of snow, otherwise partly cloudy, highs in the mid 20s, chance of precipitation is 40%.
Make sure to keep an eye out for any last minute updates on Thursday morning’s snow, and for more on the weekend threat as it unfolds. Until then, thanks for reading SCW!