As Southern parts of the state dig out and we really dig out here in New Jersey where I write this from, the overall pattern will relax, and the most dominant features in the pattern will be weak short waves without much moisture, at least for about the next week or so. Thereafter, the pattern may turn more active, but more on that at the bottom of the discussion.
For tonight, temperatures will be a bit challenging, especially in the snow-covered southern portions of the state. We've seen extreme radiational cooling the past two nights because of clear skies and fresh snowpack, and how much the temperatures drop tonight could depend greatly on cloud cover. Clouds should increase after midnight, but even so, temperatures should manage to get into the 20s.
Temperatures could also be a bit tricky for the same areas tomorrow. We have warm air advection, but at the same time, we have a generally cloudy day and deep snowpack. These two factors may cancel each other out a bit, so temperatures will probably be a few degrees cooler than they otherwise would- probably not too far from 40. Regarding precipitation, we do have a weak warm frontal feature moving through early in the day. This feature will have very little moisture, so probably will not produce precipitation, which is a good thing, because if precipitation did fall in the morning, soundings support freezing rain. The better chance for precipitation will be in the afternoon and early evening, ahead of a cold front. For the most part, this precipitation should fall as all rain. However, there is a chance that precipitation could mix with, and/or change to snow before ending, depending on the timing. The most likely chance of that, of course, would be up north. Accumulations should be very little or none, because temperatures will still be above freezing, and any snow would be fairly light.
Tuesday Night and Wednesday: We'll dry out behind the front. A weak wave of low pressure will try to develop along the cold front Wednesday. However, anymeasurable precipitation associated with this feature should remain well south of the state. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few snow flurries at any time across the state, due to the combination of the frontal wave being fairly close and lingering instability with the front being close. As far as temperatures, low temperatures Tuesday night should be within a few degrees of freezing and high temperatures on Wednesday should be in the low 40s. Since temperatures won't freefall below freezing Tuesday night, a black icing situation is not expected at this time.
Longer Term: Thursday: Cold air from behind the front will move in more efficiently on Thursday. Temperatures will return to near normal, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. Skies should be generally clear.
Friday: Models had a threat from a coastal storm. However, nearly all models now agree that this system will stay too far offshore to affect the state. However, given that we're still four days away, it will still be monitored. What really tells me this system should remain offshore is that in order for it to make it up the coast, it would have to take in some energy from an Alberta Clipper diving down from the Great Lakes. For now, there is a large separation from the two systems, and minimizing any chance of precipitation even further is the fact that the coastal low passes just close enough to steal any moisture that the Clipper has, thus dampening it out before it gets far enough east to affect Connecticut. So the upshot of it is for now, Friday should be a dry day with temperatures close to seasonal normals- lows in the 20s and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Over the weekend, a series of weak systems with just enough lift and moisture to produce precipitation will affect the state. Although it is far too early to nail down the specifics, here is how it looks like it will play out for now. Saturday should be a fair day, but with increasing clouds later in the day. Later Saturday night into early Sunday morning, very light precipitation will move into the state. Across the south, it should be all rain, but in the north, it could be freezing rain- maybe even sleet or snow earlier on.
Yet another wave will spread light precipitation into the state Sunday night for a few hours. Once again, this precipitation looks to be rain in the south, but some sleet could be possible across the north.
Monday should be fair with mild temperatures as we'll be in between systems.
As far as temperatures in the long term, Saturday should have lows in the 20s with highs around 40, Sunday should have lows around 30 with highs 40-45, and Monday should have low temperatures around the freezing mark, with highs 40-45.
There is the potential for a larger storm system on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. At this time, it appears a brief period of frozen precipitation, followed by a change to heavy rain. However, there is strong high pressure to the north, and if the models are underdoing the strength and/or staying power of that high, this could present the chance for a colder system than what is currently modeled. We will continue to monitor that system for you.
Beyond that, there are increasing hints that the Arctic will be unleashed on New England, almost reminiscent of last February!
Here is a quick map, not really much to post today in the way of maps- but this is a good look at how Friday's system is currently modeled to stay too far south and east to affect the state! You can see the coastal low well off the coasts of New Jersey and Long Island, and the weakening Alberta Clipper feature over the Toronto area- neither affecting the state.