A dramatic change in the weather pattern has occurred since we last spoke, and it now looks like we are in line for a colossal blizzard tomorrow. Expect two to four feet of snow, with 70 mph winds and coastal flooding. For future forecast updates, come find me on a beach in the Caribbean, since we are officially sick of winter and relocating our operation to the tropics. Announcements on a name change forthcoming.
April Fools! Hope you checked the calendar before panicking, but hey, if we made you book a flight to the tropics, you probably needed a vacation anyway J
With that said, there is still a chance of snow in the forecast for tomorrow. Since the last discussion on Thursday, a pacific shortwave that was previously modeled to slide south of us and out to sea has come north far enough to bring some light snow into the region to start off your workweek tomorrow. While I have my doubts that this will be the significant event that some models show, I do expect to at least see some flakes in the air and some accumulations tomorrow, with a couple of inches of snow possible in the favored spots. Let’s take a look at the setup.
Models and Trends
Here’s a look at the evolution of the storm on the GFS.
Personally, my gut feeling says that this is a relatively minor event, but it’s hard to ignore the almost unanimous consensus on the models for some sort of snowfall tomorrow morning. As such, will take the lower end of the forecast ranges and go with 2-4” for the south coast, 1-3” in central areas, and a coating – 2” in northern areas. Should the more aggressive solutions verify, we’d probably be about an inch too low across the board, but my confidence in that happening is low compared to what I think the odds are that this ends up as a general non-event for most. We’ll see what happens!
Forecast and Timing
Here’s our snowmap for this event.
Here’s the SCW impact scale for this event. I would expect some school delays across the state; not sure if any districts will choose to close given the timing of the event but given how quickly some areas have jumped to close school this year it wouldn’t shock me for some lucky folks to pick up another snow day out of this storm.