Tonight: An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the southwestern part of the state, around the midnight hour. Otherwise, expect a muggy night, with a chance for a pop-up shower just about anywhere. Low temperatures will be in the 60s statewide.
Tomorrow: Instability aloft and the fact that the cold front will stall as it encounters resistance near the coast will keep the chances of showers and thunderstorms going. Hi-res short term models are generally showing a chance around midday across the west, then a secondary chance in those areas around the evening rush hour, with perhaps a more concentrated line across the east late in the afternoon. With mostly cloudy skies, temperatures should be fairly uniform throughout the state, with highs in the 80-85 degree range.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: We clear out behind the front. Low temperatures should range from the upper 50s to mid 60s and highs should be in the 80 to 85 degree range- very uniform, since a light sea breeze should develop along the shores.
Longer Term: The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will come right at the beginning of the long term period. While it is impossible to try to time lines of showers and thunderstorms this far out, the general timing should be focused on late afternoon in the west, and around midnight in the east. Look for high temperatures to be uniform again on Friday, around 80 degrees, since clouds could limit heating in the west and the normally cooler areas in the Northeast will have more hours of sun.
The rest of the long term should be largely quiet. High pressure should be in control and there really are no precipitation threats through the rest of the long term period. As far as temperatures, we're expecting highs to be 80-85 on Saturday, and around 80 through the rest of the long term.
Looking further out into the long range, there are still no signs of a pattern that would support a large, long-lived, extreme warm up. There are some model hints of a legitimate heat wave in the July 7 to 9 time frame. However, after that, it's more of the same with just normal temperatures. There are also some hints of a more stormy pattern trying to develop through the long range, which would be welcome, because we need the rain.
Here is a look at the two frontal systems slated to affect the state this week in graphical format. First, let's take a look at the front about to affect the state later tonight into tomorrow.