Currently: A cold front extended from near Toledo, Ohio, to near Burlington, Vermont. This cold front is the boundary between summer to the east of the boundary and spring to the west.
Tonight: Temperatures will be much warmer than last night, due to more cloud cover and humidity. As the aforementioned cold front approaches, there will be a chance of showers, and perhaps even a rumble of thunder after midnight. Low temperatures will have a hard time reaching 55 degrees, except 45 to 50 over the far Southeast coast, with a breeze off the Long Island Sound.
Tomorrow: Temperatures will be a little bit tricky, because there will be an ongoing threat of some showers, especially during the first half of the day. In addition, we'll still have the sea breeze to deal with. I like the GFS guidance inland, which sends temperatures into the mid 70s in the CT valley, and the NAM MOS for coastal locations, which keeps those areas in the 60s.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Tomorrow night, we'll plunge back into spring with colder temperatures. Strong radiational cooling should allow most of the state to go around 40. Thursday should be pleasant, but with cooler temperatures. High temperatures through the state should be in the 60 to 65 degree range.
Long Term: Easter weekend and beyond: Friday and Saturday will be chilly, then the forecast will get more complex and warmer for Sunday. After that, the pattern will change back to a cooler, wetter pattern, like we had earlier this month. Here are the details:
Friday: Sunshine and 60 to 65.
Saturday: Sunshine with a few clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Then a warm front approaches Saturday night. This warm front could touch off a few showers late at night, with the best chance over Northern and Eastern sections. This will set up a much warmer day for our Easter Sunday. Highs should get into the 70-75 degree range. Then late in the day there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms, as a fairly strong cold front approaches. The front is strong in terms of temperature and air mass difference on the two sides of the front. But it doesn't have a whole lot of energy and dynamics to work with. So there will be some showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front later Sunday, but they probably will not organize into a very heavy line or produce a lot of rain.
Beyond that, the pattern will flip back to more of what we saw earlier in the month... more threats of rain storms and colder than average temperatures.
Now let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect our area in graphical format. First, here is the frontal system slated to affect the state overnight into tomorrow morning.
That's all for now, have a great rest of your week, and Happy Easter and Passover to those who celebrate!