Welp, winter arrived in force. We had a week that put us squarely on track to finish the meteorological winter near normal with regard to snowfall. However, winter’s stay, as it has been for much of the season, was brief. We’re already looking at a period of above to well above normal temperatures and no legitimate winter weather events in sight. This’ll be a short outlook.
Grading my last outlook
Unlike our temperatures, I’ve cooled off since my hot start at the beginning of meteorological winter. It’s not that I got beaten overwhelmingly this time around, but I definitely missed in week two with regard to our wintry period. In my defense, I did say that that week was really low confidence. Overall, I give my outlook a B-.
Week one—Wednesday February 1 to Tuesday February 7
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence) Check
Precipitation—near average (high confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Week two—Wednesday February 8 to Tuesday February 14
Temperatures—above average (low confidence) Fail
Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Fail
Wintry Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Fail
Forecast Period Outlook Summary
* Note—high confidence (70% or greater belief of event occurring), moderate confidence (36-69%), low confidence (0-35%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
Forecast period—Saturday February 18 to Tuesday February 28
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—above average (moderate confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence)
It looks like a reprieve from winter is here and will last the rest of the month. There could be a sneaky cold shot at the beginning of next week, but overall, it looks like a warmup is coming and it could be a significant one. As we head into the last few days of February however, we could be looking at signs of a return to cooler conditions. In terms of precipitation, I expect an active period. Right now however, it looks like we’re talking more wet than white, with the predominant storm track being one that cuts to our west. It’s been that kind of winter. That said, we saw last week how a well timed storm and pattern could produce in a big way. I’m leaving the door open for a potential return to winter after our warmup.
Since the 9th, Hartford has received nearly 22 inches of snow! Not bad. The pattern gave us a short taste of what can be done when you have a good upper level pattern. That resulted in a series of powerful storms that buried much of New England in feet of snow. However, that window has since closed. Now, we’re looking at ridging setup to our south.
With meteorological winter winding down, this may be the last two week outlook for the season. I'll reevaluate the pattern once we get to March.
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