Quick update on the severe weather potential for tomorrow. As Don mentioned yesterday in his discussion, we have a summer like day on tap, and with that comes a chance for some severe thunderstorms later in the day.
We’ll start out with cloudy skies and a slight chance of a sprinkle or two, but clouds should lift and give way to at least partial sunshine. Temps will quickly spike in areas where sunshine makes an appearance, and I expect highs to top out in the low to mid 80s for most of the state, with dew points in the mid 60 to near 70 degree range, not unbearably humid but noticeably sticky. This, combined with an approaching cold front Tuesday evening, will promote instability across the state, and lead to the potential for some severe storms later in the day.
Model guidance suggests the possibility for a strong squall line to move through from the northwest around dinner time, bringing heavy rain and an increased risk for strong to potentially damaging winds in the northwest corner. The hi-res NAM shows this well, with an intense line of storms entering the northwest corner around 6 PM and then gradually weakening it as it moves east into a more stable environment.
It looks like the cold front will stall out just to our south, resulting in cool and mostly dry weather for Wednesday. Will keep a chance of showers in the forecast to account for uncertainty in the front placement and any scattered showers that make their way north into the state. Back into the upper 70s to low 80s for Thursday before tropical moisture arrives for Friday into the weekend; while the details are still unclear, expect another wet weekend with some more chances for convection as well. Stay tuned…
Tuesday: A chance of showers, then shower and thunderstorms likely. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of rain is 40%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Friday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Saturday: Rain likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain is 70%.
Sunday: Showers likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Have a great night!