***WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE***
Good evening to you from SCW!
Our first call snowmap for late tomorrow night into Thursday is below. As you can see, we have placed the entire state in 6 to 12 inches of snow. This map could be adjusted upward or downward, refined, and perhaps split into other zones tomorrow. Right now, we are going with a wide range of totals, because a lot of this storm will be very heavy falling snow. Therefore, a lot of the accumulations will depend on who gets under the heavy bands. Unfortunately, we won't know that until the storm is in progress. So for now, we decided to go with a broadbrush approach, and if we are able, we will nail down the details tomorrow. Point is, this will be a significant snowfall, and for most of the state, it will be the largest of the season so far.
Most models are now showing in excess of one inch liquid equivalent precipitation. There is even heavier precipitation just offshore. It is possible that models are too far east with that heavy precipitation. It is also possible that models underestimate how heavy the precipitation will be in the heaviest bands. This would create higher totals. It is also common that when someone is getting very heavy snow, other areas get nothing or much lighter snow for a while. Those areas could get less accumulations. In situations like this, accumulations can very greatly from one spot to another. Here's a look at the RGEM from 18z, showing the banding signature clearly.
Snow could start as early as midnight in the far SW. Heavy snow should be ending in the state by the end of the evening rush hour, but we could see scattered snow showers and/or light snow hanging back through the evening. That's preliminary timing for now - we'll have a more detailed timeline tomorrow along with our final call.
This discussion will be updated around 8 PM covering before and after the storm, and this storm section of the disco will be updated with maps and more info as well... stay tuned!
Thanks for the coordination Tim and Spencer!