A generally quiet forecast is in store for the upcoming period. The most exciting portion of the forecast will be later today, as a cold front will slide across the state this afternoon and bring a risk of severe thunderstorms.
Here’s a look at the current radar.
The biggest risk for any severe weather comes in the form of strong winds, and for that reason the SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms that covers the entire state. While small hail is possible, any hail development will be isolated, and will likely fall below severe criteria. Considering the high perceptible water values, there is also an isolated risk for some minor flooding in areas where cells do develop, but I don’t see widespread or significant flooding being an issue.
Otherwise, we’ll see partly cloudy skies today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the state.
High pressure returns on the backside of todays cold front, and with no significant disturbances in the flow, we should see generally calm and seasonable weather. Highs will be in the mid 80s Sunday and Monday, and in the upper 80s on Tuesday.
A cold front will move across the northeast on Wednesday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance remains unclear as to how far south the front drops as it moves east, with solutions ranging from a direct hit and quite a bit of rain(GFS) to keeping the front far north of us and the net result for CT being just a few showers(Euro). With ensemble spread being all over the place, will go with a chance of showers for now and re-evaluate on later forecast shifts.
Model solutions continue to differ in this time period as a result of Wednesday’s differences. The track of the front will ultimately determine where the frontal boundary stalls offshore. Both major models are in good agreement with several areas of low pressure moving along the front later next week, so depending on the placement of the front, we could be seeing quite a bit of shower activity towards the end of the week. If the front stays north of us, we would see warmer but drier conditions. At this lead-time, will stick with a slight chance of showers and we will re-assess as data comes into agreement.
Temperatures for the back half of the week will depend on the placement of the front, but will likely be at least somewhat above normal.
Here’s a look at the GFS for Friday, showing one of the many waves of low pressure moving along the front. The Euro keeps the front much further north, and has all of this activity north of the Canadian border.
Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s. Chance of precipitation is 60%
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%
Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%
Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon, and remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! Thanks for reading SCW.