It's a beautiful start to the day in Connecticut. After another rainstorm at the end of last week, cold air rushed in and brought first flakes to many in Connecticut. The week ahead will continue to feel like winter, with our first deep cold period likely and the first winter weather "threat" beginning to appear.
Today is going to be a beautiful day. It will be mostly sunny and a bit chilly, but the precipitation will hold off during the day. As we get into the afternoon and evening hours, clouds will increase as another area of low pressure takes shape to our south and moves toward the region.
Rain will begin during the overnight hours. There is a low chance that the precipitation starts out mixed in the northwest hills, but I think any mix is very brief and leaves no accumulation. This will be a different story to our north, as some of the Berkshires and central New England may see a light coating before changing over to rain.
Tuesday is another rainy day. The area of low pressure rides up the coast, bringing us a wet morning commute. It will be breezy and wet, with rain heavy at times. This may cause some of the stressed streams and rivers to rise again, along with some minor urban flooding. I'm expecting rain of 1-1.5 inches, with some locally heavier amounts. There's some hope that the evening commute is drier. Either way, once the storm passes through we head into a very cold stretch for November.
By mid November, the average high temperature in the Hartford area is 55 degrees. The middle of the week will feature highs reminiscent of late December or early January. As you can see from the image above, which is the European model depiction of 850mb temperatures, an unusual burst of cold air is coming from Canada. With a reinforcing shot during the weekend.
We should be back to sunny and breezy conditions, and with lake effect streamers developing during the day in Upstate New York, we cannot rule out some snow flurries or snow showers similar to what we saw on Saturday.
I'm declaring this the first SCW period of interest for wintry weather. Unlike today, Thursday will have very cold air in place with the guidance showing an area of high pressure overhead that will start us off cold and keep cold air locked in place.
There are significant timing differences on the guidance, but so far, the overall setup looks the same. Another low pressure will take shape off the east coast and push northeast. By Thursday evening, we're looking at wintry precipitation overspreading the state, with more snow likely for interior Connecticut and more mixed precipitation for the coastline and southern Connecticut.
As the low gets closer, warmer air pushes into the state and we transition to all rain on Friday. There are still significant questions about the timing, type of precipitation, and duration of any frozen precipitation. Things could trend warmer or colder. It's not even worth talking about accumulation projections at this point, and beware of model snow maps on social media, they are really inaccurate in counting frozen precipitation accumulation in these situations.
The key takeaway should be that Thursday/Friday is a period worth watching for our first accumulating wintry precipitation event of the year, especially in interior Connecticut. Stay tuned.
The weekend looks bright, beautiful, and cold in the wake of the Thursday/Friday event. Saturday looks a bit warmer, but a cold front passes through and brings more cold for Monday.
Monday: Sunny and cool, with rain beginning during the overnight hours. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 80%. Chance of mixed precipitation (northern CT) 20%.
Tuesday: Rain, heavy at times. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Slight chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
Thursday: SCW Period of Interest. Mostly sunny and cold at the start, with increasing clouds, snow, and mixed precipitation during the evening and nighttime hours. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of wintry precipitation 50%.
Friday: SCW Period of Interest. Mixed precipitation early giving way to rain that will be heavy at times. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of wintry precipitation 50%. Chance of rain 70%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
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