It’s a dreary late winter day on this Saturday, with seasonably cool temperatures and ample cloud cover across much of the state despite the calendar saying we’ve advanced into meteorological spring. While the calendar may say it’s spring, the forecast says otherwise with a chance of snow early next week. Let’s take a look at the details.
Sunday is definitely the pick of the weekend. Should see mostly sunny skies and temps around 40, so enjoy your extra hour of daylight (don’t forget to spring your clocks forward before you go to bed tonight and change the batteries in your smoke detectors) and do something fun outside!
The third in a series of coastal storms then approaches to start off the workweek. Earlier in the week, we were looking at this as a Monday threat. Since then, it’s waffled around on the model guidance between being a hit and a miss, while gradually slipping backwards in time. The models now bring the storm to our east late Monday night into Tuesday so that the primary impacts are centered around Tuesday rather than Monday. While the models have come into a bit better agreement on us seeing at least some snow, there are still some differences in the evolution and track that will play a role in determining just how much snow we see.
Broadly, southern stream energy develops into a coastal system to our south, while at the same time, a strong northern stream trough drops into the east. The amount of interaction between these two features and any phasing that occurs will determine how far NW the eventual coastal system can go as well as how strong it is. Should we see a partial or even full phase, it’s likely that we will see a significant storm for at least part of the state, while a weaker or missed phase will keep heavier snow offshore with only lighter snows from the fringe of the system making it into the state.
Let’s see what some of these solutions look like. First, here’s a look at the 12z GGEM. This run had the least interaction between the streams of any of the midday guidance, and the result was a solution that only brought light snow to the state with heavier snows being confined to eastern MA. Notice how far east the center of the system is – this is worth pointing out because even in a situation where the storm escapes well out to sea we still get some light snow since the precipitation shield is modeled to be very broad.
Aside from the potential for some lingering snow or rain showers on Wednesday, partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps are expected for the back half of your workweek, with highs generally into the lower 40s. We will see a bit more sunshine each day, but expect some clouds to stick around through the end of the week.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 40s.
Monday: Increasing clouds with a slight chance of snow late. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: Snow likely, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow or rain showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low 40s.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Assuming this doesn’t all shift out to sea overnight, we’ll be back tomorrow with a first call snow map. We’ve also got an exciting announcement on tap for tomorrow, so stay tuned! Thank you for reading SCW.