The main problems with this forecast package will be determining how hot it gets, when thunderstorms will occur, and how high the probabilities are for thunderstorms at any given time. Of course, I will do my best, but things will likely change, because, as we know, meteorology is not fluid and is constantly changing.
Currently: The old cutoff low extends from near IAD to WV. High pressure is off Cape Cod. For our area, this means that the low is close enough to give us clouds, but probably no pcpn, as bands rotate to our S and SW. Meanwhile, the mean flow will be onshore, so temps get kept in check.
Tonight: With clouds around and warm air advection in progress, I'll stay close to guidance or maybe go a degree or so warmer in the normally warm spots. This yields lows of 60-65 across the state. I will not mention any pcpn in the fcst, as any chances of that are across far Wrn portions of the state and should be diminishing in a few hrs.
Tomorrow: After closely examining all available model guidance, I will be limiting any chance of showers and thunderstorms to Western CT, and even there, it will be mostly a slight chance. In my opinion, the only area worthy of more than a slight chance is the NW Hills. Because of this, I feel there will be more sun than currently modeled. As such, I've raised temp guidance a couple degrees. So xpct highs in the low 80s. Also, any convection shud be diurnal, w/the greatest chc of any storms to be w/the heating of the day.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sat should actually be very similar to Friday, in that the only areas that should really see thunderstorms will be across the west. However, there will be a bigger chance gradient. That means that along the coast, even in the W, the chance could be near zero, while there is a pretty good chance north of the Merritt Pkwy, and esp up in the NW hills. Similar to Fri, once again, I'll add a cpl deg to temp guidance, in deference to the fact that there shud be more sun than modeled. So xpct highs generally in the 80-85 range, although a few spots in the I 91 corridor could pop an 87 or 88.
Long Term: (Sun and beyond): Right now, my feeling is that thunderstorms will be a bit more widespread for Sunday- something like scattered for much of the state, with scattered to numerous in the Northwest Hills, diminishing to a slight chance east of I 91, and no chance at all along the immediate southeast coast. I will closely follow guidance temps, but will tweak a little here and there, based on where I have probabilities for storms. Expect high temps to be around 80 degs most sections.
On Monday, I feel the entire state will see a chance of thunderstorms, but the gradient will be different this time- instead of the East/West gradient we have been seeing, it will be more of a south-north gradient, with only slight chances along the south coast, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the north. I think models could be generating too much cloudiness early in the day and temps will get off to a fast start. Therefore, xpct highs in the mid to upper 80s, a couple degs above guidance.
Tuesday should be dry during the day. The best forcing arrives at night. Many times I wouldn't bother talking about t-storms if we have to wait until night for the best lift to arrive. However, since it will be hot, I feel we'll get scattered coverage of showers and t-storms at night and possibly lingering into vry ery Wed AM. The fact that the storms will not arrive until night will allow for plenty of sun, and temps shud respond by getting hot! I'll go a few degs warmer than guidance to try to compensate for trends. Xpct highs around 90, perhaps even 90-95 around the I 91 hot spots.
Current modeling has slowed way down with any frontal passages for next week. Based on today's modeling, which is all I can go by, the best chances for storms on Wed will be far W sections, diminishing to no chance at all E of I 91. With lots of sun, look for a hot one again on Wed, with highs in the low 90s. I again went 2-5 degs above guidance, because I think guidance may not be capturing the heat as hard as it shud this far out.
Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, there is a possibility of some genuine severe weather either Wednesday or Thursday across the state. At this time, the timing is highly up in the air, with the possibility even of a Thu morn frontal passage. That scenario would certainly limit the potential for any svr wx. At any rate, hot air will not be a pblm. With storms around and a front approaching, Thu shud at least be a bit cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. I went fairly close to guidance, w/a few regional tweaks here and there.
Looking into the long range, models have waffled a lot regarding placement of various frontal zones and timing various disturbances. This would have a big impact on our sensible wx here, with everything from temps to precipitation chances affected. It is my hunch that there will be more days with storms than without, and that temps and humidity will be normal to above normal for at least a while.
There will be no graphics with this package, due to a cache issue on my end. The best image anyone can look at in the coming days will be a radar map, to see where storms initiate.
That's all for now! See you next week!