Disc: A legitimate winter pattern is materializing right before our eyes. The first item on the winter banquet platter will be Arctic cold this weekend, then we watch the overall pattern transform into a true winter pattern!
Currently: Our Arctic cold front is near Chicago, but the pre-frontal trough, which will start the leakage of cold air into our region, is located near Pittsburgh. High pressure is over the Eastern United States, but since the high is producing mostly maritime air, lots of clouds are present across the area.
Tonight: The prefrontal trough should move through without a whole lot of fanfare. A brief sprinkle (or mixed sprinkle/flurry NW Hills) is possible as it heads through, but most areas will be dry. What we will notice is temperatures plummeting to 30-35 by dawn!
Tomorrow: A true winter's day on November 10! Winds will gust in the 35 to 40 MPH range, esepcially early in the day! Cold air will flow in as the true Arctic front will cross the state around dawn. The wind will make actual air temperatures, which may briefly rise to 40 to 45 in the morning, before really dropping, feel even colder.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: True winter in November. Most record lows, which were set between 60 and 80 years ago, should be broken by 3 to 5 degrees! Low temperatures should generally be in the teens statewide and may feel even colder, as there could still be a breeze! High temperatures on Saturday only rise to 40 to 45, if we're even lucky!
Long Term: There is a small chance of a coastal low in the Sunday to Monday time frame, although most models have backed off that solution for now. We'll assume that the current models are right, but it's worth noting that there have been many occasions where models have backed off something at this range, only to bring something back later on. So for now, we won't call for anything, but don't be surprised if it needs to be added into the forecast later on. Any precipitation that falls from that potential system could be frozen at times north of the Merritt Parkway or so, so that's something to also be taken into consideration. For now we'll go with a generally cloudy day for both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures gradually warm up, as high pressure shifts offshore. Expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday and a degree or two warmer on Monday.
The rest of the long term looks to feature generally fair weather with near normal temperatures. A weak system passing well to the north may generate some showers or a period of light precipitation Wednesday night. This should be mostly rain near the coast, but could be mixed with sleet and/or snow across the north and the interior. Either way, temperatures should be above freezing everywhere, and precipitation quite light, so it wouldn't be anything to worry about. As far as temperatures, expect highs in the low 50s Tuesday, upper 40s Wednesday, and near or just above 50 on Thursday.
As we head into the long range, a truly wintertime pattern seems to be materializing. Questions, of course, remain, such as "How long will this last and how intense it will be"? But today's modeling and teleconnections indicate that strong and potentially long duration are the answers. In fact, some of the long range modeling is even indicating a few threats for snow, with accumulations possible even to the coast. Of course, I am not in the habit of trying to forecast a November snowstorm from 10 or more days out, but I do like the pattern and will speak when there is a chance, so let's leave it at that, and see how this all plays out!
For now, let's take a look at some of the weather systems slated to affect our area. First, let's look at a map of low temperatures expected for Saturday morning. Before I post this map, let's keep two things in in mind. First, this map does not account for short range temperature differences due to radiational cooling. Secondly, this map is only a timeshot, which means that even based on this map, temperatures could be a few degrees colder than what is shown here.
Currently: Our Arctic cold front is near Chicago, but the pre-frontal trough, which will start the leakage of cold air into our region, is located near Pittsburgh. High pressure is over the Eastern United States, but since the high is producing mostly maritime air, lots of clouds are present across the area.
Tonight: The prefrontal trough should move through without a whole lot of fanfare. A brief sprinkle (or mixed sprinkle/flurry NW Hills) is possible as it heads through, but most areas will be dry. What we will notice is temperatures plummeting to 30-35 by dawn!
Tomorrow: A true winter's day on November 10! Winds will gust in the 35 to 40 MPH range, esepcially early in the day! Cold air will flow in as the true Arctic front will cross the state around dawn. The wind will make actual air temperatures, which may briefly rise to 40 to 45 in the morning, before really dropping, feel even colder.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: True winter in November. Most record lows, which were set between 60 and 80 years ago, should be broken by 3 to 5 degrees! Low temperatures should generally be in the teens statewide and may feel even colder, as there could still be a breeze! High temperatures on Saturday only rise to 40 to 45, if we're even lucky!
Long Term: There is a small chance of a coastal low in the Sunday to Monday time frame, although most models have backed off that solution for now. We'll assume that the current models are right, but it's worth noting that there have been many occasions where models have backed off something at this range, only to bring something back later on. So for now, we won't call for anything, but don't be surprised if it needs to be added into the forecast later on. Any precipitation that falls from that potential system could be frozen at times north of the Merritt Parkway or so, so that's something to also be taken into consideration. For now we'll go with a generally cloudy day for both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures gradually warm up, as high pressure shifts offshore. Expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday and a degree or two warmer on Monday.
The rest of the long term looks to feature generally fair weather with near normal temperatures. A weak system passing well to the north may generate some showers or a period of light precipitation Wednesday night. This should be mostly rain near the coast, but could be mixed with sleet and/or snow across the north and the interior. Either way, temperatures should be above freezing everywhere, and precipitation quite light, so it wouldn't be anything to worry about. As far as temperatures, expect highs in the low 50s Tuesday, upper 40s Wednesday, and near or just above 50 on Thursday.
As we head into the long range, a truly wintertime pattern seems to be materializing. Questions, of course, remain, such as "How long will this last and how intense it will be"? But today's modeling and teleconnections indicate that strong and potentially long duration are the answers. In fact, some of the long range modeling is even indicating a few threats for snow, with accumulations possible even to the coast. Of course, I am not in the habit of trying to forecast a November snowstorm from 10 or more days out, but I do like the pattern and will speak when there is a chance, so let's leave it at that, and see how this all plays out!
For now, let's take a look at some of the weather systems slated to affect our area. First, let's look at a map of low temperatures expected for Saturday morning. Before I post this map, let's keep two things in in mind. First, this map does not account for short range temperature differences due to radiational cooling. Secondly, this map is only a timeshot, which means that even based on this map, temperatures could be a few degrees colder than what is shown here.
It is my opinion that this map is underdoing the cold and that teens will likely make it all the way to the coast! Next, let's look at the progged upper air pattern as we head into 11 days from now, as offered from the GFS Ensembles.
There isn't much to not be excited about if you love winter weather on this map! There is plenty of high-latitude blocking, western NOAM ridging, and a deep trough over the Eastern CONUS. Of course, time will tell if this is right, but as of now, it looks like winter is coming early this year!
Anyway, that's all for now, I'll see you next week!
-GP!
Anyway, that's all for now, I'll see you next week!
-GP!
