Disc: We'll stay cold for the next seven days or so, but after that, we flip to warm, probably for at least 10-20 days. Also, it looks like the very dry pattern we had is ending.
Currently: Warm front has crossed the SW 1/2 of the state. Cold front near the Great Lakes will move thru tonight
Tonight: There could be a brief sprinkle early w/the cold front, (maybe mixed w/sleet or snow far N), then skies clear and winds increase. Due to pretty strong cold air advection, I have gone below temp guidance for lows. Most lows should be 30-35 degrees. Winds pick up by morning, and will be gusting 35-40 MPH thru the 1st part of tomorrow.
Tomorrow: Windy, esp early, and much colder. Temp guidance does not look awful, but w/fresh cold air advection, I chopped just a bit off the guidance. Look for highs generally in the low 40s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Yet another weak clipper in the flow approaches and brings a quick shot of precip (prob snow) to the area. I am not expecting any accumulations, except maybe northern areas above 1000', where they might be able to squeeze more moisture out of the atmosphere. The NBM does not pick up on this feature very well, so I chopped a few deg off temps. Expect highs generally 40-45.
Long Term: Two systems affect us in the long range, the first on Mon, and the second on Wed.
First, for Sun, sunshine and a high pressure system pulling offshore should lead to moderating temps. Look for highs in the upper 40s, except mid 40s in the NW and NE corners of the state. Guidance was generally followed, w/some small regional adjustments.
A strong "Lakes Cutter" system will affect the area on Mon. Since the antecedent air mass is not cold, I expect all areas to begin as rain. It's too early to give exact timing, but it appears like there could be two distinct shots of rain w/this storm: one later Sunday night into early Mon morn w/the warm front, then one later Mon/Mon eve, w/the cold front. Winds pick up and gust to 30 MPH during the day Mon out of the S. I usually go below guidance during storms, but w/so much warm air moving in, I decided to follow guidance pretty closely, and go with upper 50s. I did go below guidance along the S coast, with a S wind off the cool LI Sound. There I have 50-55.
Temps crash Mon nite and it's not out of the question for precip to end as snow. Models have been backing off on this, however. I still wouldn't totally rule it out, esp for the NW and NE corners of the state. Winds pick up behind the front out of the NW, w/frequent gusts 40-45 MPH later Mon into early Tue. Wind advisories may be needed for that time period.
For Tue's temps, I went just a bit below guidance, as there is still some fresh cold air advection. It's a cold day w/diminishing winds. Look for highs around 40 degrees, prob staying in the upper 30s in the NW and NE corners of the state.
The next system affects the state Wed-Thu. This could be a two-part system, where a secondary coastal forms. It could also be a colder storm. For now, models are pretty warm for snow. However, the usual places, Litchfield, Tolland, and Windham, may be able to start frozen and accumulate some. They may also be able to switch to snow when the secondary coastal takes over. This is way out, so the fcst for now is a broad brush. There could also be a break in the precip later Wed into early Thu, but I don't want to get too cute w/timing at this range. I went below temp guidance for both days here, as there really doesn't appear to be a warm fropa this time. I have near 40 pretty much all areas Wed, and low 40s Thu, but kept it cooler in the Northern areas, except BDL-HFD, and those areas are in the upper 30s, as they may transition back to snow. Winds do not look overly strong w/this sys, so are not being mentioned.
The long range pattern does not look significantly cold. It does look stormier than what we have seen, but it appears all/most of the precip should be in liquid form. There is some hope we flip to colder after the 20th or so, but that is so far out, it is basically fantasy land.
Now, let's take a look at a couple graphics showing systems slated to affect the area. I am not going into too much storm details w/these systems, since they're so far out in time and fairly complex. However, it is important to note how much precip these systems will produce. Nov was very dry across our state, w/just around 1" of precip the entire month. These systems will combine for much more moisture, just between the two of them, than Nov had for the whole month!
Currently: Warm front has crossed the SW 1/2 of the state. Cold front near the Great Lakes will move thru tonight
Tonight: There could be a brief sprinkle early w/the cold front, (maybe mixed w/sleet or snow far N), then skies clear and winds increase. Due to pretty strong cold air advection, I have gone below temp guidance for lows. Most lows should be 30-35 degrees. Winds pick up by morning, and will be gusting 35-40 MPH thru the 1st part of tomorrow.
Tomorrow: Windy, esp early, and much colder. Temp guidance does not look awful, but w/fresh cold air advection, I chopped just a bit off the guidance. Look for highs generally in the low 40s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Yet another weak clipper in the flow approaches and brings a quick shot of precip (prob snow) to the area. I am not expecting any accumulations, except maybe northern areas above 1000', where they might be able to squeeze more moisture out of the atmosphere. The NBM does not pick up on this feature very well, so I chopped a few deg off temps. Expect highs generally 40-45.
Long Term: Two systems affect us in the long range, the first on Mon, and the second on Wed.
First, for Sun, sunshine and a high pressure system pulling offshore should lead to moderating temps. Look for highs in the upper 40s, except mid 40s in the NW and NE corners of the state. Guidance was generally followed, w/some small regional adjustments.
A strong "Lakes Cutter" system will affect the area on Mon. Since the antecedent air mass is not cold, I expect all areas to begin as rain. It's too early to give exact timing, but it appears like there could be two distinct shots of rain w/this storm: one later Sunday night into early Mon morn w/the warm front, then one later Mon/Mon eve, w/the cold front. Winds pick up and gust to 30 MPH during the day Mon out of the S. I usually go below guidance during storms, but w/so much warm air moving in, I decided to follow guidance pretty closely, and go with upper 50s. I did go below guidance along the S coast, with a S wind off the cool LI Sound. There I have 50-55.
Temps crash Mon nite and it's not out of the question for precip to end as snow. Models have been backing off on this, however. I still wouldn't totally rule it out, esp for the NW and NE corners of the state. Winds pick up behind the front out of the NW, w/frequent gusts 40-45 MPH later Mon into early Tue. Wind advisories may be needed for that time period.
For Tue's temps, I went just a bit below guidance, as there is still some fresh cold air advection. It's a cold day w/diminishing winds. Look for highs around 40 degrees, prob staying in the upper 30s in the NW and NE corners of the state.
The next system affects the state Wed-Thu. This could be a two-part system, where a secondary coastal forms. It could also be a colder storm. For now, models are pretty warm for snow. However, the usual places, Litchfield, Tolland, and Windham, may be able to start frozen and accumulate some. They may also be able to switch to snow when the secondary coastal takes over. This is way out, so the fcst for now is a broad brush. There could also be a break in the precip later Wed into early Thu, but I don't want to get too cute w/timing at this range. I went below temp guidance for both days here, as there really doesn't appear to be a warm fropa this time. I have near 40 pretty much all areas Wed, and low 40s Thu, but kept it cooler in the Northern areas, except BDL-HFD, and those areas are in the upper 30s, as they may transition back to snow. Winds do not look overly strong w/this sys, so are not being mentioned.
The long range pattern does not look significantly cold. It does look stormier than what we have seen, but it appears all/most of the precip should be in liquid form. There is some hope we flip to colder after the 20th or so, but that is so far out, it is basically fantasy land.
Now, let's take a look at a couple graphics showing systems slated to affect the area. I am not going into too much storm details w/these systems, since they're so far out in time and fairly complex. However, it is important to note how much precip these systems will produce. Nov was very dry across our state, w/just around 1" of precip the entire month. These systems will combine for much more moisture, just between the two of them, than Nov had for the whole month!
The last image includes both events, which exceeds precip for all of Nov!
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
