Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!
In this post, I want to talk about our wonderful stretch of weather this week and about the recent uptick in the tropics. I know both are of great interest to many!
The Week Ahead
First things first though. Things in our neck of the woods look to be very quiet all week. We continue our dry period with very few rain chances this week.
Our summer like pattern has hung on, and although we’re slowly stepping down toward fall, we’re still looking at an extended period of above normal temperatures.
In this post, I want to talk about our wonderful stretch of weather this week and about the recent uptick in the tropics. I know both are of great interest to many!
The Week Ahead
First things first though. Things in our neck of the woods look to be very quiet all week. We continue our dry period with very few rain chances this week.
Our summer like pattern has hung on, and although we’re slowly stepping down toward fall, we’re still looking at an extended period of above normal temperatures.
There is strong agreement from both the European and GFS ensembles both in the short and long term about persistent ridging and higher heights over the east, with one exception—Labor Day Weekend…
Before we get to that though, let’s talk briefly about the next few days.
Sunday-Wednesday
There is a slight chance of showers later tonight and early Monday as a weak cold front passes through the region, but the chances are very low, as high pressure and dry conditions aloft dominate. With high pressure anchored to our northwest at least early in this period, we see seasonably warm temperatures with reduced humidity. A cold front passes Wednesday evening, bringing our next chance of showers, but rain looks unlikely here too. Humidity may increase a bit late Tuesday and into Wednesday, but it is nothing overwhelming as we head into…can you believe it…meteorological fall!
Before we get to that though, let’s talk briefly about the next few days.
Sunday-Wednesday
There is a slight chance of showers later tonight and early Monday as a weak cold front passes through the region, but the chances are very low, as high pressure and dry conditions aloft dominate. With high pressure anchored to our northwest at least early in this period, we see seasonably warm temperatures with reduced humidity. A cold front passes Wednesday evening, bringing our next chance of showers, but rain looks unlikely here too. Humidity may increase a bit late Tuesday and into Wednesday, but it is nothing overwhelming as we head into…can you believe it…meteorological fall!
Thursday/Friday
Thursday is September 1st, and right on time for the start of meteorological fall, we get our first real taste of fall. Instead of blabbering on—let’s look at the panels!
Thursday is September 1st, and right on time for the start of meteorological fall, we get our first real taste of fall. Instead of blabbering on—let’s look at the panels!
Looking just above the surface at 850mb temperatures, this is quite a cool shot. Get out and enjoy it! It doesn’t last the whole weekend but these days are as good as good gets, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s!
Labor Day Weekend Sneak Peek
The wonderful temperatures on Thursday and Friday don’t last forever. As I mentioned earlier in this post—this is our oasis in a pattern that will run above normal. Ridging builds back in, and by this time, I think we’re turning our attention to the tropics…
The Dailies:
Sunday: Cloudy start but gradual clearing during the day. Very slight chance of showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of showers 10%.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers early. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers late. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with reduced humidity. Beautiful day. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Friday: Gorgeous. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Bonus!
Sunday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Labor Day: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the mid 80s.
Part II: The Tumultuous Tropics
Things are heating up. What many mockingly call the most famous Invest in history, Invest 99L is still spinning south of Florida this morning. After eleven days of tracking, this frustrating system has not developed yet, and it is no guarantee that it ever does.
Labor Day Weekend Sneak Peek
The wonderful temperatures on Thursday and Friday don’t last forever. As I mentioned earlier in this post—this is our oasis in a pattern that will run above normal. Ridging builds back in, and by this time, I think we’re turning our attention to the tropics…
The Dailies:
Sunday: Cloudy start but gradual clearing during the day. Very slight chance of showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of showers 10%.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers early. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers late. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with reduced humidity. Beautiful day. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Friday: Gorgeous. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Bonus!
Sunday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Labor Day: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the mid 80s.
Part II: The Tumultuous Tropics
Things are heating up. What many mockingly call the most famous Invest in history, Invest 99L is still spinning south of Florida this morning. After eleven days of tracking, this frustrating system has not developed yet, and it is no guarantee that it ever does.
Current enhanced satellite loop of 99L. It's disorganized and getting sheared, but has a chance to develop in the Gulf of Mexico by early this week.
The lack of development is a real problem for forecasters—as errors in both track and intensity forecasting are greatest when there is not a well defined system. This is something to keep in mind moving forward into the peak of hurricane season. Don’t buy the models past 5 days when we have this kind of uncertainty. Heck, you might not even be able to buy them inside 3 days with 99L.
What may be quickly overtaking 99L in terms of organization, is Invest 91L. This disturbance is in between Bermuda and the US coast, and will actually make a close approach south of our region. It does not threaten us, but it could develop to a tropical depression as soon as today and may become a weak tropical storm as it moves westward. It likely gets kicked out to sea, but we’ll be watching closely.
Latest ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer--think of it as an X-Ray) image of 91L. You can see a likely closed circulation at the center with the wind barbs turning, and relatively strong winds to the north of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system today.
Finally, there is a new area of interest out near Africa. This could be one to watch in the very long range, and if you like ridiculous model runs you can already see it's "potential" but it is not worth worrying (or really even thinking) about right now. A lot will change.
Finally, there is a new area of interest out near Africa. This could be one to watch in the very long range, and if you like ridiculous model runs you can already see it's "potential" but it is not worth worrying (or really even thinking) about right now. A lot will change.
As I mentioned yesterday, Connecticut is always a potentially vulnerable spot during hurricane season. We are quickly approaching the peak of the season in September, and the tropics look to remain active through the next few weeks. Unlike other years, I am particularly focused on the tropics right now because of our overall pattern. As I mentioned at the start, there is strong agreement from both the European and GFS ensembles in a strong ridging pattern for the east coast. That is one of the key elements needed for tropical systems to make a close approach or hit somewhere along the US coastline.
Now, let me be clear, I am not calling for a visit by a tropical critter, but it is hard to not look at the pattern and not see the potential for someone on the east coast to see some sort of close approach should this pattern hold. Everyone should be doing their annual check of their preparedness plan!
Now, let me be clear, I am not calling for a visit by a tropical critter, but it is hard to not look at the pattern and not see the potential for someone on the east coast to see some sort of close approach should this pattern hold. Everyone should be doing their annual check of their preparedness plan!
Over the next few weeks as the tropics heat up, I'll be here to make sure you are #HurricaneStrong.
Thanks for reading!
-DB
Thanks for reading!
-DB
