Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather.
We're digging out from our second major storm to hit the area in less than a week. There are still over 126,000 people without power and it could be a while until everyone has their power restored.
Before we turn to the next potential storm we should look back at this one.
We're digging out from our second major storm to hit the area in less than a week. There are still over 126,000 people without power and it could be a while until everyone has their power restored.
Before we turn to the next potential storm we should look back at this one.
GOES-16 satellite imagery over the region this morning revealing snow cover across Connecticut.
Overall, I think we did well, but there's always room for improvement. We identified this potential nearly a week before it came to pass, which hopefully gave many of you a heads up on what was coming. We judge ourselves based on our final call, which did not change during the storm despite what many thought was a slow start. During the storm, we did state that we thought many would be on the higher end of our forecast totals, and that turned out to be mostly true.
Overall, I think we did well, but there's always room for improvement. We identified this potential nearly a week before it came to pass, which hopefully gave many of you a heads up on what was coming. We judge ourselves based on our final call, which did not change during the storm despite what many thought was a slow start. During the storm, we did state that we thought many would be on the higher end of our forecast totals, and that turned out to be mostly true.
Snowfall Verification
Above are most of the snowfall totals reported to the National Weather Service from the storm. The locations are not exact, but I did my best to place them over the towns where they came from. You will see that there aren't a lot of reports in eastern CT or far SW CT.
Generally we could have expanded all our zones eastward a bit more than we did. There were some tremendous totals in far western Connecticut that were a result of banding that sat over the area the longest. I don't think we would have gone higher with snowfall predictions given the information we had before the first flakes fell.
Generally we could have expanded all our zones eastward a bit more than we did. There were some tremendous totals in far western Connecticut that were a result of banding that sat over the area the longest. I don't think we would have gone higher with snowfall predictions given the information we had before the first flakes fell.
Impact Verification
Snowfall accumulation
We gave ourselves a B here. As you can see from the map, most of the official reports to the NWS were within our range which is good, but I think we could have expanded all the zones east a bit more and ended up more accurate. Everyone cares about snow totals more than anything else, and while it's a difficult thing to pin down, we definitely could have been a touch better with our zones.
Snowfall rate
We really nailed other aspects of the forecast, and snowfall rate was one of them. We called for high impact snowfall rates and we got them, not just in western Connecticut where we saw snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour at one time, but in other parts of the state as well. No doubt this part was an A.
Wind
We did well with wind too. We called for gusty conditions but nothing that came close to our first major storm. That turned out to be accurate.
Power outages
This part of the forecast is where I am kicking myself the most. We were unable to put two and two together in the sense that we called for heavy wet snow for most, but didn't think it'd have an enhanced impact on infrastructure and trees that were already stressed by the last storm. This definitely should have been high impact, as evidenced by the over 100,000 residents without power still.
Timing
I think a B for timing works here. Like other outlets we called for snow to begin lightly by early morning and begin to intensify by afternoon. What we missed however (along with everyone else) was how light much of the snow would be and for how long. For many, especially in eastern Connecticut, the storm didn't really begin to crank until around 4-5pm. That makes a big difference in whether kids can go to school and business stay open. Timing is notoriously hard to pin down sometimes and it was certainly the case here.
Road conditions
Not much needs to be said here. Just look at the photos of the highways during the height of the storm. It was downright dangerous to be on the roads once the storm got going.
Overall Score
Overall, averaging the scores we earned a B+. Not bad. As always, we learned a lot and will use the information gained to be better in the future. We appreciate everyone on Facebook and Twitter providing observations and support.
Looking Ahead
I'm not going to get too into the weeds here, but as I mentioned last night, we're already looking at the next potential storm. Details are far from set in stone but an area of low pressure is expected to develop off the southeast coast by the weekend.
It is too early to know if the system will make a close approach to the region, but models have shown the potential for another potent event if the pieces come together. We will continue to watch and will provide more details as we have them.
We gave ourselves a B here. As you can see from the map, most of the official reports to the NWS were within our range which is good, but I think we could have expanded all the zones east a bit more and ended up more accurate. Everyone cares about snow totals more than anything else, and while it's a difficult thing to pin down, we definitely could have been a touch better with our zones.
Snowfall rate
We really nailed other aspects of the forecast, and snowfall rate was one of them. We called for high impact snowfall rates and we got them, not just in western Connecticut where we saw snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour at one time, but in other parts of the state as well. No doubt this part was an A.
Wind
We did well with wind too. We called for gusty conditions but nothing that came close to our first major storm. That turned out to be accurate.
Power outages
This part of the forecast is where I am kicking myself the most. We were unable to put two and two together in the sense that we called for heavy wet snow for most, but didn't think it'd have an enhanced impact on infrastructure and trees that were already stressed by the last storm. This definitely should have been high impact, as evidenced by the over 100,000 residents without power still.
Timing
I think a B for timing works here. Like other outlets we called for snow to begin lightly by early morning and begin to intensify by afternoon. What we missed however (along with everyone else) was how light much of the snow would be and for how long. For many, especially in eastern Connecticut, the storm didn't really begin to crank until around 4-5pm. That makes a big difference in whether kids can go to school and business stay open. Timing is notoriously hard to pin down sometimes and it was certainly the case here.
Road conditions
Not much needs to be said here. Just look at the photos of the highways during the height of the storm. It was downright dangerous to be on the roads once the storm got going.
Overall Score
Overall, averaging the scores we earned a B+. Not bad. As always, we learned a lot and will use the information gained to be better in the future. We appreciate everyone on Facebook and Twitter providing observations and support.
Looking Ahead
I'm not going to get too into the weeds here, but as I mentioned last night, we're already looking at the next potential storm. Details are far from set in stone but an area of low pressure is expected to develop off the southeast coast by the weekend.
It is too early to know if the system will make a close approach to the region, but models have shown the potential for another potent event if the pieces come together. We will continue to watch and will provide more details as we have them.
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UKMET, Canadian, and GFS images showing the signal for a low pressure to get close, but not a direct hit signal at this time. We will keep watch.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
