It certainly has felt more like winter in the past week than it has felt for most of the winter- frequent snowfalls, snow on the ground over most of the area, and a real chill in the air! We've had the cold air most of the winter, but we really haven't had all that much snow.
Currently: A very weak cold front is located near the Delaware River. An attendant weak Alberta Clipper low was over upstate NY. This combination is producing some flurries and even light snow showers across the area now. These will tend to diminish with the loss of daytime heating and instability once the sun sets.
Tonight: Since the flurries and snow showers will tend to diminish after sunset, there's no point including them in the forecast. Skies should gradually clear after dark and winds should diminish, as well. This should set the stage for a good radiational cooling night. Therefore, I'll go with the coolest guidance. Lows should range from the mid single digits in the NW hills and coolest sheltered valleys to the upper teens in urban centers and along the south coast.
Tomorrow: Temperatures tomorrow should be fairly uniform. This is because the warmer, southern areas, should see more clouds than the northern areas, which should serve to balance out temperatures. Highs should be in the mid 30s statewide. Clouds will tend to increase during the day, especially along southern areas.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The main focus around this time period will be a warm frontal system. Right now, the models keep all precipitation later Friday (snow) to the south of the state and the trend has been for a weaker system. Therefore, at this time, although clouds will be introduced into the forecast for much o the state, I will keep any mention of precipitation out of the forecast. The best chance for any very light snow to make it into the region would be along the south coast. I will call for a chance of snow showers there Friday night, but all measurable precipitation should remain well south of the state. I think skies should be slower to clear than most models have for Saturday. In addition, there are two other factors going against rapid warming on Saturday. First, warm fronts struggle to come north this time of year. Secondly, the ground is snow covered. Therefore, I'll go a couple degrees below all guidance for temperatures on Saturday, and call for highs in the low 40s statewide (again northern areas will have more sun earlier, thus balancing out temperatures).
Long Term: Sun-Thu: The main highlights of the long term period are two storms that will track to our west, one at the start of the long term period and the second at the end of the long term period, with near normal weather for this time of year in between.
The first system should affect the state from the predawn hours to the late afternoon hours on Sunday, except lingering until later Sunday evening east of I 91. A burst of snow is possible, with a couple inches accumulation before it changes to rain pretty much everywhere except the SE coast, The good news with this system is it appears there will be no concerns about freezing rain, as the 0C 850 temperature (which we use for snow or sleet) actually rises above freezing AFTER the surface warms. This is more of a "normal" atmosphere, and not one really supportive of freezing rain. So we should go straight from snow to rain with this one, and everyone should change to rain, because the low pressure system is passing to the west of the area, and any high pressure to the north moves out early in the storm. As is typical with this type of storm at this time of year, models are trending colder with the high temperatures on Sunday, as surface warm fronts do have trouble making it through this time of year. Therefore, I'll try to capture the trend and go a little under guidance for highs, and call for low 40s for most of the state- perhaps a bit warmer along the SE coast, although even there it could be tricky with a flow off the cool Long Island Sound. It could turn out even cooler than I am predicting, but I don't want to go too cool with a low passing to our west.
Monday through Wednesday should feature generally fair weather with temperatures somewhere around normal. Guidance looks a bit too warm, especially on Monday. Even so, high temperatures should generally be in the mid 40s. Tuesday should be the coolest day of the period, when temperatures could be a few degrees cooler.
The next storm system to affect the area is slated for Thursday into Friday. Since this storm is way at the end of our forecast period, I did not put much time into the exact details. However, it is tracking to our west, with what appears to be even less high pressure in place to start than Sunday's event. Therefore, I would be very surprised if anyone in the state got any frozen precipitation from that system.
In the long range, a blocky pattern looks to set up, at least for a while. That generally translates to below to much below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. I would not be surprised if we have not yet seen the last snowfall of the season. Odds obviously favor interior sections this time of year, but anyone can still get snow, as we saw just last year!
Now, here is a look at a couple of systems of concern for this week for the area. First, this is the warm front slated to move through tomorrow night. As mentioned, any precipitation with it would be snow. But aside from a brief flurry or snow shower along the south coast, all measurable precipitation should remain south of the state.
Currently: A very weak cold front is located near the Delaware River. An attendant weak Alberta Clipper low was over upstate NY. This combination is producing some flurries and even light snow showers across the area now. These will tend to diminish with the loss of daytime heating and instability once the sun sets.
Tonight: Since the flurries and snow showers will tend to diminish after sunset, there's no point including them in the forecast. Skies should gradually clear after dark and winds should diminish, as well. This should set the stage for a good radiational cooling night. Therefore, I'll go with the coolest guidance. Lows should range from the mid single digits in the NW hills and coolest sheltered valleys to the upper teens in urban centers and along the south coast.
Tomorrow: Temperatures tomorrow should be fairly uniform. This is because the warmer, southern areas, should see more clouds than the northern areas, which should serve to balance out temperatures. Highs should be in the mid 30s statewide. Clouds will tend to increase during the day, especially along southern areas.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The main focus around this time period will be a warm frontal system. Right now, the models keep all precipitation later Friday (snow) to the south of the state and the trend has been for a weaker system. Therefore, at this time, although clouds will be introduced into the forecast for much o the state, I will keep any mention of precipitation out of the forecast. The best chance for any very light snow to make it into the region would be along the south coast. I will call for a chance of snow showers there Friday night, but all measurable precipitation should remain well south of the state. I think skies should be slower to clear than most models have for Saturday. In addition, there are two other factors going against rapid warming on Saturday. First, warm fronts struggle to come north this time of year. Secondly, the ground is snow covered. Therefore, I'll go a couple degrees below all guidance for temperatures on Saturday, and call for highs in the low 40s statewide (again northern areas will have more sun earlier, thus balancing out temperatures).
Long Term: Sun-Thu: The main highlights of the long term period are two storms that will track to our west, one at the start of the long term period and the second at the end of the long term period, with near normal weather for this time of year in between.
The first system should affect the state from the predawn hours to the late afternoon hours on Sunday, except lingering until later Sunday evening east of I 91. A burst of snow is possible, with a couple inches accumulation before it changes to rain pretty much everywhere except the SE coast, The good news with this system is it appears there will be no concerns about freezing rain, as the 0C 850 temperature (which we use for snow or sleet) actually rises above freezing AFTER the surface warms. This is more of a "normal" atmosphere, and not one really supportive of freezing rain. So we should go straight from snow to rain with this one, and everyone should change to rain, because the low pressure system is passing to the west of the area, and any high pressure to the north moves out early in the storm. As is typical with this type of storm at this time of year, models are trending colder with the high temperatures on Sunday, as surface warm fronts do have trouble making it through this time of year. Therefore, I'll try to capture the trend and go a little under guidance for highs, and call for low 40s for most of the state- perhaps a bit warmer along the SE coast, although even there it could be tricky with a flow off the cool Long Island Sound. It could turn out even cooler than I am predicting, but I don't want to go too cool with a low passing to our west.
Monday through Wednesday should feature generally fair weather with temperatures somewhere around normal. Guidance looks a bit too warm, especially on Monday. Even so, high temperatures should generally be in the mid 40s. Tuesday should be the coolest day of the period, when temperatures could be a few degrees cooler.
The next storm system to affect the area is slated for Thursday into Friday. Since this storm is way at the end of our forecast period, I did not put much time into the exact details. However, it is tracking to our west, with what appears to be even less high pressure in place to start than Sunday's event. Therefore, I would be very surprised if anyone in the state got any frozen precipitation from that system.
In the long range, a blocky pattern looks to set up, at least for a while. That generally translates to below to much below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. I would not be surprised if we have not yet seen the last snowfall of the season. Odds obviously favor interior sections this time of year, but anyone can still get snow, as we saw just last year!
Now, here is a look at a couple of systems of concern for this week for the area. First, this is the warm front slated to move through tomorrow night. As mentioned, any precipitation with it would be snow. But aside from a brief flurry or snow shower along the south coast, all measurable precipitation should remain south of the state.
The next map we'll look at is Sunday's system. With the system passing to the west of the state, precipitation will ultimately become all rain. However, there is a high pressure system to our northeast and enough cold air in place that most of the state, possibly sans the far SE coast, should be able to see a quick inch or two of snow before the snow changes to rain.
That's all for now, everyone enjoy your week!
-GP!
-GP!
