Disc: High-latitude blocking has set up across the northern latitudes. This translates to cooler than normal weather across the Northeast. It does not always mean very stormy weather, but if there are storms, they tend to move slower than normal.
Currently: Cold front well offshore. High pressure sprawling across the Plains and a low over Nova Scotia producing strong winds w/the gradient.
Tonight: I'll go a deg or two below temp guidance. We won't achieve max radiational cooling, due to strong winds and varying amounts of clouds. But at the same time, there is good CAA, so that argues for going a bit below guidance. Lows should be in the upper 20s.
Tomorrow: Will continue the trend of going a deg or two lower than guidance, due to continued CAA and mostly cloudy skies. Highs barely get to 40 degrees for most of the state, maybe 40-45 along I 91. Streamers coming off the Great Lakes could also produce a stray snow flurry, esp in the NW Hills.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sat could turn out to be the nicest day of the weekend. Temps close to guidance, no reason to quibble. Highs generally near 50, maybe 50-55 in the I 91 corridor. Winds diminish.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): During this period, we will really begin to feel the effects of the block. Guidance, esp upper level guidance, has come in significantly colder for Sun. An Alberta Clipper system will track well to our N. This system could produce a rogue sprinkle, flurry, or even sleet shower, but most of its precip should stay to the N. NBM guidance has not yet caught up yet (prob due to a few warm ENS members), but nearly all op guidance has cooled significantly. Therefore, I will take off 5 to 8 deg off the NBM guidance. I will expect high temps to be mainly in the upper 40s, with maybe a few low 50s along I 91.
Mon looks to be a fairly nice day. I have gone fairly close to temp guidance, w/just a local adjustment here or there. Behind the clipper, we could see winds gusting to 30 MPH. Temps should get into the upper 50s, maybe a few 60+ readings along I 91.
For Tue, a nice day w/diminishing winds. I've gone a couple deg cooler than NBM guidance. I still think there are a few ENS members in there that do not recognize the block. Even so, a nice day, w/highs in the low 60s and lots of sun.
For Wed, high pressure overhead, heights rise a bit. Temp guidance looks good, w/just some local adjustments. Highs generally around 60, coolest near the S coast, w/sea breeze development expected.
For Thu, heights continue to rise, but clouds increase, so probably a wash there. Guidance temps again generally accepted w/a few local adjustments. Once again, expect highs around 60, coolest at the S coast. Again looks like a good day for sea breeze development.
This is just beyond our long term period, but a low passing to our west could bring good amounts of rain Fri. This could be the beginning of many days of at least some rain. In blocky patterns, you get long dry spells and long wet spells. This fcst period is a good example thereof. I would bet on generally below norm temps in the long range until we can get rid of the block.
No graphics needed today. I really have nothing to show, as the probability of measurable precip is quite low thru day 7. Otherwise, take care, and I'll see you next week!
-GP!
