Disc: T.S. Nate, which is currently over Honduras, will head NE and ultimately pass over the area five days from now. This will be one of the devices needed to accelerate our pattern change which will result in a different, more fall-like, regime over the area.
Currently: A quasistationary front extended from the Sierra Nevada mountains in California all the way to near Halifax, Nova Scotia. This front is north of our area, placing the area in the warm sector tonight. A weak impulse moving along the warm sector will produce some showers and thunderstorms, mostly in extreme southern portions of the state.
Tonight: A warm and muggy night is in store. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly along the south coast. Lows statewide will be in the 60-65 degree range.
Tomorrow: A gradual clearing trend is expected, although some cumulus development is possible during the afternoon. It will be quite warm for the time of year, with high temperatures 75 to 80.
Tomorrow night/Saturday: A brief sprinkle or light rain shower is possible tomorrow night late at night... otherwise, warmer than normal and more humid than normal conditions continue through Saturday. Saturday should be partly to mostly sunny, with high temperatures fairly close to 80 degrees, except cooler in the NW Hills.
Long Term (Sunday through Thursday): The remnants of Nate will approach. This will continue to increase humidity levels across the state, along with warmer than normal temperatures continuing, thanks to the Bermuda Ridge offshore. There is a big disconnect in guidance between NAM and GFS temperatures for Sunday. I will go closer to the GFS temperatures, which are warmer, but not quite all the way in... my reasoning is as follows: the warmer temperatures have verified this week, but the GFS guidance tends to be the absolute warmest limit. So we'll go close to the GFS guidance, but not all the way there, and go with near 80 degrees for most of the state. It could be a shade cooler along the immediate south coast and in the higher elevations of the NW Hills. There could be an isolated shower late in the day, especially in the SW, as moisture from Nate moves in.
On Monday, moisture from Nate will be in full force, and rain will fall, heavily at times. I do not want to try to time everything too specifically this far out, but suffice it to say, prepare for a rainy Monday. I am not calling for a very windy day at this point, since Nate will move over a lot of land and probably weaken quite a bit. However, two wild cards that could make it more windy are if Nate makes landfall as a stronger storm than previously predicted, which is possible, given the area Nate is headed to. The other possibility is that Nate undergoes extratropical transition earlier, and winds increase from the gradient between the remnants of Nate and the high pressure to the north and east. This is also a possibility. So while I'm not going windy right now, there is a possibility that later shifts may want to increase the winds. As for temperatures, I'll go cooler than guidance and go with temperatures holding around 70 through the day, due to clouds and rain. Guidance tends to run too warm in these situations at this range.
On Tuesday, moisture from Nate will pull out from SW to NE, mainly during the first part of the day. Skies should clear, and the extent of clearing will determine how warm we get. For now, with the NHC track not taking the center of Nate's remnants past our latitude until late afternoon (you'll see the graphic below), I'll go with the cloudier, cooler, scenarios, and allow showers to linger most of the day. Therefore, we'll keep Tuesday's highs to 70 to 75.
Behind Nate, on Wednesday, a strong cold front will approach. As Nate dissolves into an upper level low over New England and the cold pool aloft approaches, showers will still be possible, along with lots of clouds. Once again, it looks like 70 to 75 are reasonable expectations for highs.
Finally on Thursday, we'll be in the post-cold frontal air mass, so temperatures could be much colder. However, the upper level low will linger nearby, and showers will still be possible, more prevalent further north and in higher elevations. Temperatures on Thursday will be a good 10 degrees colder than those of Wednesday, figure 60 to 65.
The long range looks to feature highly variable temperatures, but generally much cooler than what we have seen, and more of what we should be seeing for October. In addition, precipitation will be more common- another sign of "normalcy" returning to our weather.
Now, let's take a look at weather systems affecting our region, in graphical format. Let's first look at the NHC's track of Nate, and look how the low pressure center is progged to traverse Connecticut. It is possible that a dry slot surrounds the low pressure center. However, at this point, it is not a good idea to try and pinpoint where that will be, since a day 5 track is never the final track.
Currently: A quasistationary front extended from the Sierra Nevada mountains in California all the way to near Halifax, Nova Scotia. This front is north of our area, placing the area in the warm sector tonight. A weak impulse moving along the warm sector will produce some showers and thunderstorms, mostly in extreme southern portions of the state.
Tonight: A warm and muggy night is in store. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly along the south coast. Lows statewide will be in the 60-65 degree range.
Tomorrow: A gradual clearing trend is expected, although some cumulus development is possible during the afternoon. It will be quite warm for the time of year, with high temperatures 75 to 80.
Tomorrow night/Saturday: A brief sprinkle or light rain shower is possible tomorrow night late at night... otherwise, warmer than normal and more humid than normal conditions continue through Saturday. Saturday should be partly to mostly sunny, with high temperatures fairly close to 80 degrees, except cooler in the NW Hills.
Long Term (Sunday through Thursday): The remnants of Nate will approach. This will continue to increase humidity levels across the state, along with warmer than normal temperatures continuing, thanks to the Bermuda Ridge offshore. There is a big disconnect in guidance between NAM and GFS temperatures for Sunday. I will go closer to the GFS temperatures, which are warmer, but not quite all the way in... my reasoning is as follows: the warmer temperatures have verified this week, but the GFS guidance tends to be the absolute warmest limit. So we'll go close to the GFS guidance, but not all the way there, and go with near 80 degrees for most of the state. It could be a shade cooler along the immediate south coast and in the higher elevations of the NW Hills. There could be an isolated shower late in the day, especially in the SW, as moisture from Nate moves in.
On Monday, moisture from Nate will be in full force, and rain will fall, heavily at times. I do not want to try to time everything too specifically this far out, but suffice it to say, prepare for a rainy Monday. I am not calling for a very windy day at this point, since Nate will move over a lot of land and probably weaken quite a bit. However, two wild cards that could make it more windy are if Nate makes landfall as a stronger storm than previously predicted, which is possible, given the area Nate is headed to. The other possibility is that Nate undergoes extratropical transition earlier, and winds increase from the gradient between the remnants of Nate and the high pressure to the north and east. This is also a possibility. So while I'm not going windy right now, there is a possibility that later shifts may want to increase the winds. As for temperatures, I'll go cooler than guidance and go with temperatures holding around 70 through the day, due to clouds and rain. Guidance tends to run too warm in these situations at this range.
On Tuesday, moisture from Nate will pull out from SW to NE, mainly during the first part of the day. Skies should clear, and the extent of clearing will determine how warm we get. For now, with the NHC track not taking the center of Nate's remnants past our latitude until late afternoon (you'll see the graphic below), I'll go with the cloudier, cooler, scenarios, and allow showers to linger most of the day. Therefore, we'll keep Tuesday's highs to 70 to 75.
Behind Nate, on Wednesday, a strong cold front will approach. As Nate dissolves into an upper level low over New England and the cold pool aloft approaches, showers will still be possible, along with lots of clouds. Once again, it looks like 70 to 75 are reasonable expectations for highs.
Finally on Thursday, we'll be in the post-cold frontal air mass, so temperatures could be much colder. However, the upper level low will linger nearby, and showers will still be possible, more prevalent further north and in higher elevations. Temperatures on Thursday will be a good 10 degrees colder than those of Wednesday, figure 60 to 65.
The long range looks to feature highly variable temperatures, but generally much cooler than what we have seen, and more of what we should be seeing for October. In addition, precipitation will be more common- another sign of "normalcy" returning to our weather.
Now, let's take a look at weather systems affecting our region, in graphical format. Let's first look at the NHC's track of Nate, and look how the low pressure center is progged to traverse Connecticut. It is possible that a dry slot surrounds the low pressure center. However, at this point, it is not a good idea to try and pinpoint where that will be, since a day 5 track is never the final track.
Finally, let's take a look at the GFS' presentation of rainfall over our area from Nate. This map is valid midday Monday. You can see heavy rain has already moved into the state and a lot more is to come.
Anyway, that's all for now. Have a great end of your week and weekend!
-GP!
-GP!
