Thunderstorms erupted across much of the area, especially western portions of the state, and were a lot stronger than what anyone planned on today. This will lead us into more questions as we head into the next few days, since the air mass will be largely the same.
Currently: If you looked at a current surface map without the radar being superimposed onto it, you would think there was just high pressure over the area and fair weather. However, the combination of a high humidity environment and various little boundaries, such as the sea breeze boundary and later on, various boundaries created by old thunderstorms, have generated lots of convection across the area. This creates additional difficulty forecasting the next few days, as the overall pattern will not change.
Tonight: Low temperatures will stay warm, as we stay humid and mostly cloudy. Most lows will be near 70 degrees, except cooler in the NW hills. Will go with diurnal type convection, so that most of the night stays dry, but a rogue thunderstorm is possible at just about any time.
Tomorrow: Temperatures should be pretty uniform- generally in the mid 80s- as sea breezes will cool the south coast. Again, timing any convection will be difficult, but as the day warms up, there should be a chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing as the daytime heating increases.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: Once again, not much change. Temperatures could be a degree or two cooler. Temperatures should once again be fairly uniform, due to coastal sea breezes. Once again, showers and thunderstorms should erupt with daytime heating, and diminish at night, with the loss of daytime heating.
Long Term- the weekend and beyond: At least 75-80% of the weekend should be nice. There could be leftover showers and thunderstorms during the first half of Saturday, as we await the cold frontal passage. After that, expect very nice later summer weather for the rest of the weekend. As far as temperatures, look for highs 75 to 80 Saturday and 80 to 85 on Sunday.
Some models are hinting at a potential coastal storm, with steady rains later Monday into Tuesday. Even if this does happen, it would be a quick mover, and most of the rain would hit later Monday into early Tuesday, so that at least half of Monday and Tuesday would be nice. Factoring this potential storm into the plans, I have lowered high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, to the mid 70s for Monday and near 80 Tuesday. Wednesday should be a nice day, as any coastal low will have cleared the area. High temperatures should be 80 to 85 on Wednesday.
Long Range: As we get into the long range portion of the forecast, as I have been correctly saying for the majority of the forecasts I have issued this summer, I still do not see any large-scale mechanism for a pattern change. Expect temperatures to average somewhere close to normal, with sunnier days being warmer and cloudier days cooler. Also expect a general tendency towards stormier than normal weather to continue.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems to affect the area, in graphical format. I'll look at Saturday's cold front, and then we'll take a look at the potential coastal low for later in the week. So first, let's take a look at Saturday's cold front.
Currently: If you looked at a current surface map without the radar being superimposed onto it, you would think there was just high pressure over the area and fair weather. However, the combination of a high humidity environment and various little boundaries, such as the sea breeze boundary and later on, various boundaries created by old thunderstorms, have generated lots of convection across the area. This creates additional difficulty forecasting the next few days, as the overall pattern will not change.
Tonight: Low temperatures will stay warm, as we stay humid and mostly cloudy. Most lows will be near 70 degrees, except cooler in the NW hills. Will go with diurnal type convection, so that most of the night stays dry, but a rogue thunderstorm is possible at just about any time.
Tomorrow: Temperatures should be pretty uniform- generally in the mid 80s- as sea breezes will cool the south coast. Again, timing any convection will be difficult, but as the day warms up, there should be a chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing as the daytime heating increases.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: Once again, not much change. Temperatures could be a degree or two cooler. Temperatures should once again be fairly uniform, due to coastal sea breezes. Once again, showers and thunderstorms should erupt with daytime heating, and diminish at night, with the loss of daytime heating.
Long Term- the weekend and beyond: At least 75-80% of the weekend should be nice. There could be leftover showers and thunderstorms during the first half of Saturday, as we await the cold frontal passage. After that, expect very nice later summer weather for the rest of the weekend. As far as temperatures, look for highs 75 to 80 Saturday and 80 to 85 on Sunday.
Some models are hinting at a potential coastal storm, with steady rains later Monday into Tuesday. Even if this does happen, it would be a quick mover, and most of the rain would hit later Monday into early Tuesday, so that at least half of Monday and Tuesday would be nice. Factoring this potential storm into the plans, I have lowered high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, to the mid 70s for Monday and near 80 Tuesday. Wednesday should be a nice day, as any coastal low will have cleared the area. High temperatures should be 80 to 85 on Wednesday.
Long Range: As we get into the long range portion of the forecast, as I have been correctly saying for the majority of the forecasts I have issued this summer, I still do not see any large-scale mechanism for a pattern change. Expect temperatures to average somewhere close to normal, with sunnier days being warmer and cloudier days cooler. Also expect a general tendency towards stormier than normal weather to continue.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems to affect the area, in graphical format. I'll look at Saturday's cold front, and then we'll take a look at the potential coastal low for later in the week. So first, let's take a look at Saturday's cold front.
This is actually a very well-defined cold front, as it heads through the Lehigh Valley. I do not expect severe weather, however, since the timing is not really good. But we should get a good line of showers and thunderstorms with this frontal passage.
This is an odd-looking map for the time of year. Consider the fact that there is a low going into the Great Lakes and a bit of a secondary coastal forming just east of Atlantic City, and for the fifth or sixth time this summer, we have a map that does not really look like a summer map...
Anyway, that's enough for now. Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
Anyway, that's enough for now. Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
