As promised, we saw some snow across the state this morning, with accumulations ranging from a coating on the shoreline to several inches further inland, with jackpot values around 5” in the hills north and east of Hartford. We’ll do a complete verification map once the system wraps up and we have a final totals report, but for the most part, it looks like our forecast will verify well for part one of our return to winter.
We now turn our attention to part two of our tale of two snowstorms as another clipper system approaches the state from the Midwest tomorrow morning. Here’s a look at it on radar
Snow moves in tomorrow morning, breaking out before sunrise across most of the state. Initially, I expect everywhere to start as snow, but by mid-morning, I expect coastal areas to change over to rain, and the rain snow line should move steadily north throughout the morning into the early afternoon. As the system begins to move to our east, colder air will funnel in behind the storm, possibly flipping some areas back to snow for a time as the storm departs. Precipitation should taper off from northwest to southeast from the late afternoon through the evening hours, with all snow out of the state by midnight at the latest.
As far as where the rain/snow line ends up, the guidance looks to be in pretty good agreement that the northern limit will be around the MA/CT border, with most models keeping northern CT as all or mostly snow. As such, considering that we’re looking at a well-defined consensus of about a half inch of liquid, I’m comfortable with an advisory level snowfall in that area.
Further south remains somewhat unclear. As mentioned before, guidance is in good agreement that the northern border is about the furthest north the line could get, but some modeling, specifically the NAM and it’s high resolution cousin, keep it much further south, and allow most of the state away from the shoreline to remain all snow.
Here’s a look at the temperatures on the highres NAM and the GFS for tomorrow at 2 PM.
However, that doesn’t mean that sections further south won’t see snow. Here’s our forecast snowmap for this event.
- 3 AM – 8 AM: Snow breaks out west to east, light at first but then becoming steadier as the morning commute progresses.
- 8 AM – 10 AM: The shoreline begins to change over to rain, steadier snow continues in the remainder of the state.
- 10 AM – 1 PM: Snow changes over to rain from south to north, with the northern tier of the state remaining all snow.
- 1 PM – 3 PM: If the northern tier does change to rain, now is the time, otherwise, rain continues for most of the state with snow in the northern tier.
- 3 PM – 6 PM: The rain-snow line begins to push south, flipping some areas back to snow. Rain continues further south.
- 6 PM – 10 PM: Snow tapers off northwest to southeast, with a possible flip back to snow shortly before the end of the precipitation statewide.