Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After a quiet week we had a pretty quiet weekend. Tonight however we have some thunderstorms in eastern Connecticut. There is no severe threat.
Today was the last hot day we will see in a while. A strong cold front will usher in a new pattern, and this coming trough will be at least partially responsible fore recurving Major Hurricane Erin away from the U.S. coast long before it has a chance to make landfall. That said, there will still be some coastal impacts.
The week ahead looks pretty quiet, but I am casually watching another tropical wave in the Atlantic that has a possible setup that makes me perk up. Let's dive in.
After a quiet week we had a pretty quiet weekend. Tonight however we have some thunderstorms in eastern Connecticut. There is no severe threat.
Today was the last hot day we will see in a while. A strong cold front will usher in a new pattern, and this coming trough will be at least partially responsible fore recurving Major Hurricane Erin away from the U.S. coast long before it has a chance to make landfall. That said, there will still be some coastal impacts.
The week ahead looks pretty quiet, but I am casually watching another tropical wave in the Atlantic that has a possible setup that makes me perk up. Let's dive in.
Above: the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for CT. With a dry July, we're now seeing abnormally dry conditions show up in southern CT. Much of the state has been dry through August, however.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week brings a taste of fall. After the front passes tonight we will see a break in the warmth and humidity in a big way. Tomorrow will start out cloudy and breezy, but both the clouds and wind will diminish as high pressure builds in. Highs will be in the 70s tomorrow! Those are September high temperatures, and just as impressive, lows Monday night should be in the low 50s for many inland locations and even a bit lower in our normal cold spots.
With high pressure in charge Tuesday, it'll be a nice sunny day with most spots struggling in the upper 70s.
Wednesday-Friday
This period brings the closest approach by Erin, which will be a massive storm geographically by this time. Erin will safely recurve thanks to our trough bringing cooler weather, and a "kicker" flow due to troughing over in Canada. While a U.S. landfall isn't happening, we cannot forget about coastal impacts. As Erin approaches there will be significant wave heights along exposed beaches to our east, as well as significant rip current risk. Depending on how close Erin gets, there could be gusty winds in southeast New England, especially the Cape and Nantucket. Even there though, conditions should be sunny. The satellite images will be something late week--a reminder that hurricane season is nothing to take lightly.
As for our weather, Wednesday and Thursday will bring some shower risk, but it will be low. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. While Wednesday may be a bit cloudy, I'm thinking Thursday is quite nice.
The nice weather continues into Friday with Erin passing well to our south and sunny and dry conditions remaining in place. Temperatures will creep up to more seasonable levels, but humidity should remain manageable.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week brings a taste of fall. After the front passes tonight we will see a break in the warmth and humidity in a big way. Tomorrow will start out cloudy and breezy, but both the clouds and wind will diminish as high pressure builds in. Highs will be in the 70s tomorrow! Those are September high temperatures, and just as impressive, lows Monday night should be in the low 50s for many inland locations and even a bit lower in our normal cold spots.
With high pressure in charge Tuesday, it'll be a nice sunny day with most spots struggling in the upper 70s.
Wednesday-Friday
This period brings the closest approach by Erin, which will be a massive storm geographically by this time. Erin will safely recurve thanks to our trough bringing cooler weather, and a "kicker" flow due to troughing over in Canada. While a U.S. landfall isn't happening, we cannot forget about coastal impacts. As Erin approaches there will be significant wave heights along exposed beaches to our east, as well as significant rip current risk. Depending on how close Erin gets, there could be gusty winds in southeast New England, especially the Cape and Nantucket. Even there though, conditions should be sunny. The satellite images will be something late week--a reminder that hurricane season is nothing to take lightly.
As for our weather, Wednesday and Thursday will bring some shower risk, but it will be low. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. While Wednesday may be a bit cloudy, I'm thinking Thursday is quite nice.
The nice weather continues into Friday with Erin passing well to our south and sunny and dry conditions remaining in place. Temperatures will creep up to more seasonable levels, but humidity should remain manageable.
Above: the Euro depiction of Wednesday-Friday with the GFS depiction below. It's a close call with Erin that's not actually that close, as the steering pattern was nowhere near what would allow for a New England tropical cyclone hit.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is looking nice and seasonable. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s, with humidity levels that look low to moderate. We will be watching the timing of a cold front, so I will introduce some shower chances on Sunday. The coming weekend does not look like a washout by any means.
Watching the Atlantic
I haven't talked that much about Erin because once it became clear that the steering pattern was not conducive for a New England hit, it wasn't worth talking too much about for the purposes of our forecasting.
For now, that is also the case with our newest tropical wave, which is about where Erin was a few days ago.
The weekend is looking nice and seasonable. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s, with humidity levels that look low to moderate. We will be watching the timing of a cold front, so I will introduce some shower chances on Sunday. The coming weekend does not look like a washout by any means.
Watching the Atlantic
I haven't talked that much about Erin because once it became clear that the steering pattern was not conducive for a New England hit, it wasn't worth talking too much about for the purposes of our forecasting.
For now, that is also the case with our newest tropical wave, which is about where Erin was a few days ago.
Above: the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) tropical weather outlook. A wave passing the Cabo Verde Islands is currently weak, but has a 40% chance of development in the next seven days.
This latest wave is following on the heels of Erin, and has a lot going for it. First of all, while there is dry air and Saharan dust (SAL) in the Atlantic, that didn't stop Erin, and often storms like Erin can clear the way for follow up waves to deal with less dust and dry air. I think that will be the case here. In addition, wind shear doesn't look overwhelming, and the atmospheric conditions look favorable as it gets further west.
So why the paragraphs on this one? First, the doom runs you may have seen of this wave hitting the U.S. are hype--just like with Erin. What is different however, is the potential for this system to make it further west because the steering pattern looks different in the long range.
I think this is one that develops later than Erin as well, which may keep it further south. Unlike Erin, which is being turned north and out to sea by a break in the Atlantic ridge, it looks like there's a real chance that this wave does not have the same escape route. What's more, there may be ridging in Canada where there is troughing now and troughing to our west where there is ridging now. That is the kind of pattern that makes me perk up, as it opens the door--if it happens--for a tropical system to get pulled north near the east coast or in the Gulf.
Below is what a historic New England tropical pattern looks like. At least for now, ensembles show some semblance of this kind of pattern in the longer range. It means little now as the exact placement of features will change and there's no guarantee that this wave will even be where it needs to in order to get picked up rather than kicked out to sea, but it's something. The composite comes from meteorologist Eric Webb, using historic landfall pattern data.
This latest wave is following on the heels of Erin, and has a lot going for it. First of all, while there is dry air and Saharan dust (SAL) in the Atlantic, that didn't stop Erin, and often storms like Erin can clear the way for follow up waves to deal with less dust and dry air. I think that will be the case here. In addition, wind shear doesn't look overwhelming, and the atmospheric conditions look favorable as it gets further west.
So why the paragraphs on this one? First, the doom runs you may have seen of this wave hitting the U.S. are hype--just like with Erin. What is different however, is the potential for this system to make it further west because the steering pattern looks different in the long range.
I think this is one that develops later than Erin as well, which may keep it further south. Unlike Erin, which is being turned north and out to sea by a break in the Atlantic ridge, it looks like there's a real chance that this wave does not have the same escape route. What's more, there may be ridging in Canada where there is troughing now and troughing to our west where there is ridging now. That is the kind of pattern that makes me perk up, as it opens the door--if it happens--for a tropical system to get pulled north near the east coast or in the Gulf.
Below is what a historic New England tropical pattern looks like. At least for now, ensembles show some semblance of this kind of pattern in the longer range. It means little now as the exact placement of features will change and there's no guarantee that this wave will even be where it needs to in order to get picked up rather than kicked out to sea, but it's something. The composite comes from meteorologist Eric Webb, using historic landfall pattern data.
Simply put, this one is perhaps worth a closer casual eye, but not hype or panic.
The Dailies
Monday: Cloudy start with decreasing clouds and wind. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with shower chances early. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Sunday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Cloudy start with decreasing clouds and wind. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with shower chances early. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Sunday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
