Currently: Warm front is all the way up in Northern New England, allowing the area to enjoy a beautiful day today. A cold front is back in Western PA. This will be the focus for a round of rain tonight.
Tonight: Temps really crash after fropa. Due to cold air advection, I've gone a few deg below guidance. Look for lows in the mid to upper 30s. A shot of rain is likely between 8 PM and 3 AM or so w/the front. The rain could be briefly heavy, but no t-storms are expected. It is not impossible for some snow to mix in at the end, but any snow will be inconsequential, as dry air rapidly moves in behind the storm. Some wind gusts to 30 MPH will be possible along and behind the frontal passage, as cold air moves in.
Tomorrow: Much cooler. Winds gradually diminish, but it will be breezy much of the day. It is not impossible for a stray flurry in the NW Hills, but low probs, so left it out of the fcst. Went fairly close to guidance temps, as I think strong sun besets cold air advection. Highs generally in the mid to upper 40s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Continued chilly. Advection is near zero, so the NBM guidance was followed closely. Highs should be near or a deg or two warmer than Fri- in the upper 40s.
Long Term: The long term period could be much more active than what we've seen recently.
Sunday: Clouds increase. Some light rain showers/sprinkles could arrive by day's end, but 3 things stopped me from putting it into the fcst. First, it gets dark early. Secondly, anything that falls then would be very light. Finally, predictability is low. I did chop a good 5 deg off temp guidance, due to a cloudy day and with the possibility of some rain. Even so, it will still be a bit warmer, w/highs of 50-55.
Monday: Rain should fall for much of the day. However, most of the rain should be light. So a typical November rain for a change, on a chilly, dreary day. Again, chopped 5 deg or so off guidance, which is much too aggressive, given clouds and rain. Once again anticipating high temps of 50-55.
Tue-Wed: I combined these two days because the fcst for these two days hinges on the development of a coastal "follow up" low. These are tricky to predict 18 hours out, let alone 5-6 days out. For now, I have put in a 30-40 POP for a period of snow Tue, and a 30 POP for snow showers Wed, w/greatest chances over NE CT. I have a convention of not mentioning any chances for accumulations unless POPs are over 50, so I will not do so, but if this event does materialize, accumulations would be possible. The air mass is cold enough. For now, I have gone w/highs of 40-45, which is close to guidance, because my fcst implies there will be some sun and just snow showers. However, if the snow is steadier, this could trend quite a bit colder. The easiest part of the fcst is winds, esp on Wed, because even if the storm completely misses, there will be gusts of 35-40 MPH, esp on Wed, w/a strong low offshore.
Thanksgiving: Our first stab at a Thanksgiving fcst is a chilly, windy one, w/gusts of 40-45 MPH probably affecting the floats at the Macy's parade. I went a bit below guidance, as I think it is contaminated by climo at that range and have highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Long Range: Models are going to struggle in the long range, given the overall blocky pattern. But blocky patterns this time of yr are known to produce colder than normal temps and above normal storminess. That's really all I can say at this range.
For our graphcial section, I am not going to post anything regarding the potential "follow up" low for early next week, as there is too much model inconsistency right now. I will post the shot of rain tonight and the rain for Monday. The midnight map for tonight clearly shows rain affecting the majority of the area. Nothing crazy in terms of rain amounts- just a nice shot of rain w/a cold fropa. The second map, valid Monday midday, shows a dreary, cool rain. The real heavy rain misses the area for now, so a light, but steady rain is anticipated at this time.