Climatology alone says that you don't get winter off to a start like we did, with both significant snow and cold, and just end it without a return. Now, the long range models and teleconnections agree with that assessment.
Currently: Rain event in progress across the state. Some questions still remain as to how far north the warm front will progress. Current surface analysis shows the warm front stretching from around the Tappan Zee Bridge, then along the Merritt Parkway to about New Haven, then into Northeastern CT. This warm front has a sharp thermal boundary along it, with temperature differences of 10 to 15 degrees from one side of the front to the other. Meanwhile, a cold front was now approaching the Delaware River. In the warm sector, a squall line of heavy showers and strong winds. North of the warm front, precipitation was more of a general rainfall. Other than being a chilly rain versus a warm rain, these temperature differences will not cause a huge problem, since the entire state is safely above freezing.
Rest of Today/Tonight: Rain ends from mid afternoon to rush hour from SW to NE. Behind the front, temperatures will drop. The cold front is of polar, not Arctic, origin. So it will be cold, and even below normal for a couple days, but we will not see the kind of cold we saw earlier this month, at least not this time. As for low temperatures tonight, guidance is in very good agreement, so I see no reason to differ. Guidance yields near 30 up North to the upper 30s along the south coast in urban areas.
Tomorrow: On cold air advection days, the cooler guidance has fared better this season. With this in mind, I'll ride the cooler NAM guidance. This yields high temperatures near 40 throughout the state. It' really a typical cold air advection day tomorrow, with temperatures not really moving much during the day.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Temperatures will plunge tomorrow night, as the core of the cold air moves in. However, without snow cover and with the air mass not being all that cold, I think temperature guidance is overdoing how cold it will get tomorrow night. So with that in mind, going a few degrees warmer than all guidance yields lows ranging from the upper teens to the mid 20s. For Thursday, guidance is in excellent agreement and accepted "as is", which is in the 30-35 degree range across the state- cold, despite plenty of sun.
Long Term- the weekend and beyond: A bit of a roller coaster ride with temperatures is expected, with a bias toward above normal, during this period. First, after a very cold morning on Friday, high pressure will retreat offshore, temperatures should warm into the upper 30s statewide on Friday, as advection becomes neutral and gradually switches to warm. On Saturday, the next system will approach. This system seems quite a bit weaker than what we had today. However, it will still produce widespread precipitation across the state. With a weaker system. precipitation will be of longer duration, but much lighter. Thinking precipitaiton will just get into our SW sections by the end of the day Saturday, and may not be out of the E sections until Sunday night. Temperatures will warm during the event. At this time, I will call for all rain from this event, as thermal profiles really are not supportive of anything other than rain. But only a couple degrees cooler could support some snow or sleet at the very beginning. Yet another factor going against any frozen precipitation is the fact that dew points are high, so there really isn't even any threat of wet bulb temperatures producing sleet. Even this far out, the threat of freezing rain seems pretty near zero, since temperatures, even up north, should be several degrees above freezing. So with this all said, at this point, calling for all rain is the smart thing to do. As far as high temperatures this weekend, with a weak system (and weak systems not being notorious for rushing warm fronts through, I went below guidance, especially on Sunday, with mid to upper 40s for highs both days.
Another fairly strong push of cold air will move in behind this system. A clipper system, along with a reinforcing shot of cold air, should bring a shot of light snow to the state Monday night. Some minor accumulations (a coating to an inch) could be possible with this. It's not really possible at this juncture to pinpoint who could get coatings, since snow would likely be showery in nautre. Other than this, generally fair, but cold weather should be expected for Monday and Tuesday. As for temperatures, expect highs in the upper 30s on Monday, dropping to near 30 by Tuesday.
Long Range: The pattern should begin the process of transitioning to one which favors cold in the East during the first week of February. The details on exactly when this pattern flips and whether or not it flips with a bang, so to speak, are still to be resolved, but suffice it to say, the pattern after the flip will not resemble anything like we have seen recently, and will resemble more what we saw in late December and early January. Anyway, that's enough verbiage. Now let's look at some of the upcoming weather events in map form. First, let's take a look at the weeeknd system. You can see from the map below that this is a very weak low over upstate NY. This favors light, steady precipitaiton, and really does not favor any frozen precipitation, unless there is some cold air to start, and there really isn't this time.
Currently: Rain event in progress across the state. Some questions still remain as to how far north the warm front will progress. Current surface analysis shows the warm front stretching from around the Tappan Zee Bridge, then along the Merritt Parkway to about New Haven, then into Northeastern CT. This warm front has a sharp thermal boundary along it, with temperature differences of 10 to 15 degrees from one side of the front to the other. Meanwhile, a cold front was now approaching the Delaware River. In the warm sector, a squall line of heavy showers and strong winds. North of the warm front, precipitation was more of a general rainfall. Other than being a chilly rain versus a warm rain, these temperature differences will not cause a huge problem, since the entire state is safely above freezing.
Rest of Today/Tonight: Rain ends from mid afternoon to rush hour from SW to NE. Behind the front, temperatures will drop. The cold front is of polar, not Arctic, origin. So it will be cold, and even below normal for a couple days, but we will not see the kind of cold we saw earlier this month, at least not this time. As for low temperatures tonight, guidance is in very good agreement, so I see no reason to differ. Guidance yields near 30 up North to the upper 30s along the south coast in urban areas.
Tomorrow: On cold air advection days, the cooler guidance has fared better this season. With this in mind, I'll ride the cooler NAM guidance. This yields high temperatures near 40 throughout the state. It' really a typical cold air advection day tomorrow, with temperatures not really moving much during the day.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Temperatures will plunge tomorrow night, as the core of the cold air moves in. However, without snow cover and with the air mass not being all that cold, I think temperature guidance is overdoing how cold it will get tomorrow night. So with that in mind, going a few degrees warmer than all guidance yields lows ranging from the upper teens to the mid 20s. For Thursday, guidance is in excellent agreement and accepted "as is", which is in the 30-35 degree range across the state- cold, despite plenty of sun.
Long Term- the weekend and beyond: A bit of a roller coaster ride with temperatures is expected, with a bias toward above normal, during this period. First, after a very cold morning on Friday, high pressure will retreat offshore, temperatures should warm into the upper 30s statewide on Friday, as advection becomes neutral and gradually switches to warm. On Saturday, the next system will approach. This system seems quite a bit weaker than what we had today. However, it will still produce widespread precipitation across the state. With a weaker system. precipitation will be of longer duration, but much lighter. Thinking precipitaiton will just get into our SW sections by the end of the day Saturday, and may not be out of the E sections until Sunday night. Temperatures will warm during the event. At this time, I will call for all rain from this event, as thermal profiles really are not supportive of anything other than rain. But only a couple degrees cooler could support some snow or sleet at the very beginning. Yet another factor going against any frozen precipitation is the fact that dew points are high, so there really isn't even any threat of wet bulb temperatures producing sleet. Even this far out, the threat of freezing rain seems pretty near zero, since temperatures, even up north, should be several degrees above freezing. So with this all said, at this point, calling for all rain is the smart thing to do. As far as high temperatures this weekend, with a weak system (and weak systems not being notorious for rushing warm fronts through, I went below guidance, especially on Sunday, with mid to upper 40s for highs both days.
Another fairly strong push of cold air will move in behind this system. A clipper system, along with a reinforcing shot of cold air, should bring a shot of light snow to the state Monday night. Some minor accumulations (a coating to an inch) could be possible with this. It's not really possible at this juncture to pinpoint who could get coatings, since snow would likely be showery in nautre. Other than this, generally fair, but cold weather should be expected for Monday and Tuesday. As for temperatures, expect highs in the upper 30s on Monday, dropping to near 30 by Tuesday.
Long Range: The pattern should begin the process of transitioning to one which favors cold in the East during the first week of February. The details on exactly when this pattern flips and whether or not it flips with a bang, so to speak, are still to be resolved, but suffice it to say, the pattern after the flip will not resemble anything like we have seen recently, and will resemble more what we saw in late December and early January. Anyway, that's enough verbiage. Now let's look at some of the upcoming weather events in map form. First, let's take a look at the weeeknd system. You can see from the map below that this is a very weak low over upstate NY. This favors light, steady precipitaiton, and really does not favor any frozen precipitation, unless there is some cold air to start, and there really isn't this time.
Next, we'll take a look at the next system- a clipper with a strong shot of cold air behind it- slated for Monday and Monday night. This has the potential to drop very minor accumulations of snow, but like I said, it will be next to impossible to pinpoint exactly where any accumulations would be at this point.
Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
