Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather.
We’ve been watching the severe weather and flash flooding potential for a few days now, and today I remain relatively bullish on the potential materializing today.
I expect today to be a multi-hazard day, with chances for severe thunderstorms over the course of the afternoon and evening as discrete (individual) thunderstorms and a line of thunderstorms in association with a cold front pushes through the region. In addition, with very high moisture levels and favorable flow along the cold front, a flash flooding risk exists as well.
We’ve been watching the severe weather and flash flooding potential for a few days now, and today I remain relatively bullish on the potential materializing today.
I expect today to be a multi-hazard day, with chances for severe thunderstorms over the course of the afternoon and evening as discrete (individual) thunderstorms and a line of thunderstorms in association with a cold front pushes through the region. In addition, with very high moisture levels and favorable flow along the cold front, a flash flooding risk exists as well.
Currently we see clouds across the state. It is humid out there as well with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. I expect conditions to gradually become more favorable for thunderstorm development during the day.
Currently Flash Flood Watches are up for much of Connecticut. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Always remember that if you see flooded roads while driving you need to turn around. Right now, I expect the greatest threat for flash flooding to be west of I-91, but torrential rain is possible across the state as the storms move through.
In terms of timing, I’m thinking that we could see the first storms fire a bit earlier in the day, and everyone should be prepared for thunderstorms as early as noon. That said, I still think the bulk of the action happens between 2pm and 11pm, with a particular focus on the evening commute and rain continuing even after the line of storms moves through.
The SPC has much of western Connecticut in an Enhanced risk for severe weather, and it’s not hard to see why. I expect enough overlap of shear, instability, moisture, and lift to create strong to severe thunderstorms. Not every storm will be severe, and the threat diminishes a bit further east. However, everyone should keep an eye to the sky and radar.
In terms of the specific risks, I am thinking that high wind has the greatest chance of occurring. Hail is possible but not a main hazard. There is also a low risk for a tornado, but it is a non-zero chance. We have to closely watch anything that comes out of the Hudson Valley, where I think the greatest chance of severe weather currently is. If we see individual storms fire out ahead of the main line of storms, those discrete cells could be particularly interesting.
In terms of timing, I’m thinking that we could see the first storms fire a bit earlier in the day, and everyone should be prepared for thunderstorms as early as noon. That said, I still think the bulk of the action happens between 2pm and 11pm, with a particular focus on the evening commute and rain continuing even after the line of storms moves through.
The SPC has much of western Connecticut in an Enhanced risk for severe weather, and it’s not hard to see why. I expect enough overlap of shear, instability, moisture, and lift to create strong to severe thunderstorms. Not every storm will be severe, and the threat diminishes a bit further east. However, everyone should keep an eye to the sky and radar.
In terms of the specific risks, I am thinking that high wind has the greatest chance of occurring. Hail is possible but not a main hazard. There is also a low risk for a tornado, but it is a non-zero chance. We have to closely watch anything that comes out of the Hudson Valley, where I think the greatest chance of severe weather currently is. If we see individual storms fire out ahead of the main line of storms, those discrete cells could be particularly interesting.
HRRR depiction of the thunderstorm development today. Not to be taken verbatim, the short term/high resolution guidance can be a great tool when used properly.
The high resolution NAM above is pretty bullish today. Looking at the soundings across the guidance, you see a signal for strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
To be clear, I am not expecting a severe weather outbreak. Many will likely not see true severe weather or flash flooding. However, that’s the nature of severe thunderstorms. For those that do see severe weather or flash flooding, it will be a potentially dangerous situation.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
We will be on all day and providing continuing updates should they become necessary.
Thank you for trusting SCW.
-DB
To be clear, I am not expecting a severe weather outbreak. Many will likely not see true severe weather or flash flooding. However, that’s the nature of severe thunderstorms. For those that do see severe weather or flash flooding, it will be a potentially dangerous situation.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
We will be on all day and providing continuing updates should they become necessary.
Thank you for trusting SCW.
-DB
