Good evening from SCW.
January has been an active and interesting month. With the extended cold last week, we're back within range of the January temperature forecast we had in our winter forecast (which was 1-2 degrees above normal), but the repeated bouts of high precipitation events have continued to roll on. Both the official Hartford and Bridgeport stations are well above normal in overall precipitation and that will only grow with the rain coming tomorrow.
The January snowfall distribution has been interesting as well. While some places like the hill towns have done very well and have likely exceeded their monthly snowfall average, your perception of how wintry the month has been will depend on your location.
If you're right along the coast, or in lower elevation western CT, things may feel bleak if you are a winter lover. Inland, if you're in a lower elevation location, you may feel better that the challenges the coast has faced (and faces every year in reality) haven't extended to you, but maybe a little down on what you've gotten.
This is why I like placing climatology data in the early month discussions.
Hartford (BDL) January Normals
January Snowfall: 14.2"/ Snowfall to date: 13.6" (95.77% of monthly normal)
January Precipitation: 3.28"/ Precipitation to date: 6.48" (197.56% of monthly normal)
Normal December-January snowfall: 24.3"/ Snowfall to date: 13.6" (55.96% of normal)
Normal December-January precipitation: 7.36"/ Precipitation to date: 14.52" (197.28% of normal)
Bridgeport (BDR) January Normals
January Snowfall: 8.5"/ Snowfall to date: 5.5" (64.70% of monthly normal)
January Precipitation: 3.18"/ Precipitation to date: 4.45" (139.93% of monthly normal)
Normal December-January snowfall: 14.0"/ Snowfall to date: 5.5" (39.28% of normal)
Normal December-January precipitation: 7.16"/ Precipitation to date: 12.8" (178.77% of normal)
You can see that there's a clear split in outcomes so far this month in both precipitation and snowfall. During our big winter storm earlier in the month, much of inland CT cashed in on the opportunity, while coastal CT, which has had to battle temperatures all season, was less successful.
Even so, with shoreline seasonal snowfall being what it is, it wouldn't take much for the area, and as a result, the rest of the state, to finish our active January with near to perhaps above monthly snowfall. Between Friday's rain event and our potential Sunday/Monday system, we likely add to both the snowfall and overall precipitation column before the month closes.
While the blowtorch December likely keeps us all below normal overall in snowfall as we enter February, an El Nino backloaded winter tends to peak in February, which is statistically our best month for snowfall. Even in the bad years we tend to do backloaded well in Connecticut.
For now, however, let's talk about the coming seven days.
January has been an active and interesting month. With the extended cold last week, we're back within range of the January temperature forecast we had in our winter forecast (which was 1-2 degrees above normal), but the repeated bouts of high precipitation events have continued to roll on. Both the official Hartford and Bridgeport stations are well above normal in overall precipitation and that will only grow with the rain coming tomorrow.
The January snowfall distribution has been interesting as well. While some places like the hill towns have done very well and have likely exceeded their monthly snowfall average, your perception of how wintry the month has been will depend on your location.
If you're right along the coast, or in lower elevation western CT, things may feel bleak if you are a winter lover. Inland, if you're in a lower elevation location, you may feel better that the challenges the coast has faced (and faces every year in reality) haven't extended to you, but maybe a little down on what you've gotten.
This is why I like placing climatology data in the early month discussions.
Hartford (BDL) January Normals
January Snowfall: 14.2"/ Snowfall to date: 13.6" (95.77% of monthly normal)
January Precipitation: 3.28"/ Precipitation to date: 6.48" (197.56% of monthly normal)
Normal December-January snowfall: 24.3"/ Snowfall to date: 13.6" (55.96% of normal)
Normal December-January precipitation: 7.36"/ Precipitation to date: 14.52" (197.28% of normal)
Bridgeport (BDR) January Normals
January Snowfall: 8.5"/ Snowfall to date: 5.5" (64.70% of monthly normal)
January Precipitation: 3.18"/ Precipitation to date: 4.45" (139.93% of monthly normal)
Normal December-January snowfall: 14.0"/ Snowfall to date: 5.5" (39.28% of normal)
Normal December-January precipitation: 7.16"/ Precipitation to date: 12.8" (178.77% of normal)
You can see that there's a clear split in outcomes so far this month in both precipitation and snowfall. During our big winter storm earlier in the month, much of inland CT cashed in on the opportunity, while coastal CT, which has had to battle temperatures all season, was less successful.
Even so, with shoreline seasonal snowfall being what it is, it wouldn't take much for the area, and as a result, the rest of the state, to finish our active January with near to perhaps above monthly snowfall. Between Friday's rain event and our potential Sunday/Monday system, we likely add to both the snowfall and overall precipitation column before the month closes.
While the blowtorch December likely keeps us all below normal overall in snowfall as we enter February, an El Nino backloaded winter tends to peak in February, which is statistically our best month for snowfall. Even in the bad years we tend to do backloaded well in Connecticut.
For now, however, let's talk about the coming seven days.
Above: the 18z European Ensemble mean depiction of the Sunday storm. The exact track and strength are critical to how wintry this system is for Connecticut.
Friday-Saturday
Before we talk about the Sunday storm, let's talk about tomorrow's storm. While today was in the 50s, that's it for the January "thaw". We are warmer than normal in the 40s tomorrow, but the story is the rain, which will move in overnight and depart gradually tomorrow afternoon. This shouldn't be like the other very high precipitation events we've seen this month so I am not expecting flooding issues, but tomorrow is an umbrella day. This is a more run of the mill warm January storm--which does commonly happen in the middle of winter.
Saturday looks like our quiet day which we may need as I think this Sunday event is going to go down to the wire in the outcome. Highs remain in the 40s with perhaps some peeks of sun, though clouds will quickly increase as the next storm arrives.
Sunday-Monday
These potential storms have not been easy on us, and this one is definitely no different. This is the quintessential thread the needle winter storm around here, with no cold airmass in place before storm arrival, a coastal system that is taking its time to develop, and possible track issues.
The track issues seem to be coming into better focus. Whereas a day or two ago it seemed possible that this could track so close that it's becomes an all rain event, it does now look like the low transfers from over the eastern US to the Atlantic and then moves under New England. That increases confidence that there is at least some snow with this.
However, there are still two major issues. The first is that lack of a cold airmass. Unlike other storms this month, we don't really have solid cold locked in as the storm advances. That could very well mean a period of rain starting on Sunday that eventually flips to snow as the storm wraps in colder air. That's a big red flag for significant accumulations, especially if you're on the shoreline. Even inland that could lead to a less impactful event.
Right now, I am inclined to believe that this also trends toward opening the window for a more wintry event. I don't want to oversell it however, I'm not terribly confident in that yet. Part of the issue on the models is that they've overplayed the warmth just generally (those 60s modeled by the Euro earlier in the week were never happening with northwest flow), and the other part is that they assumed greater warmth with a closer track. With a track that looks to be more offshore now both at the surface and aloft, the airmass looks just cold enough for a majority snow event. But...there's another issue, and it's easy to see on the latest GFS model run.
It's a weak system that's barely dynamic.
Friday-Saturday
Before we talk about the Sunday storm, let's talk about tomorrow's storm. While today was in the 50s, that's it for the January "thaw". We are warmer than normal in the 40s tomorrow, but the story is the rain, which will move in overnight and depart gradually tomorrow afternoon. This shouldn't be like the other very high precipitation events we've seen this month so I am not expecting flooding issues, but tomorrow is an umbrella day. This is a more run of the mill warm January storm--which does commonly happen in the middle of winter.
Saturday looks like our quiet day which we may need as I think this Sunday event is going to go down to the wire in the outcome. Highs remain in the 40s with perhaps some peeks of sun, though clouds will quickly increase as the next storm arrives.
Sunday-Monday
These potential storms have not been easy on us, and this one is definitely no different. This is the quintessential thread the needle winter storm around here, with no cold airmass in place before storm arrival, a coastal system that is taking its time to develop, and possible track issues.
The track issues seem to be coming into better focus. Whereas a day or two ago it seemed possible that this could track so close that it's becomes an all rain event, it does now look like the low transfers from over the eastern US to the Atlantic and then moves under New England. That increases confidence that there is at least some snow with this.
However, there are still two major issues. The first is that lack of a cold airmass. Unlike other storms this month, we don't really have solid cold locked in as the storm advances. That could very well mean a period of rain starting on Sunday that eventually flips to snow as the storm wraps in colder air. That's a big red flag for significant accumulations, especially if you're on the shoreline. Even inland that could lead to a less impactful event.
Right now, I am inclined to believe that this also trends toward opening the window for a more wintry event. I don't want to oversell it however, I'm not terribly confident in that yet. Part of the issue on the models is that they've overplayed the warmth just generally (those 60s modeled by the Euro earlier in the week were never happening with northwest flow), and the other part is that they assumed greater warmth with a closer track. With a track that looks to be more offshore now both at the surface and aloft, the airmass looks just cold enough for a majority snow event. But...there's another issue, and it's easy to see on the latest GFS model run.
It's a weak system that's barely dynamic.
This is the latest GFS, which shows a mostly snow event because the surface low (and low aloft) is offshore, but it's really just middling along rather than intensifying quickly and significantly as it transfers energy from PA and WV to the coast. Why does that matter? Well, it makes the difference between a light to moderate snow event and a bigger one, because you don't get the development of a classic cold conveyor belt (CCB) that would allow for heavy snowfall that can both cool the column and surface even to the coast and provide more efficient high ratio snowfall that can accumulate better.
This is a critical piece to the storm. Without it we run the risk of a warmer and far less effective snow producer, even if the low takes a classic benchmark track. I have a hard time buying that this will be significantly stronger than what's being depicted now on the guidance, but the organizational trend is important too. This is something I'll be watching closely Friday and Saturday.
As it stands now, snow is likely to begin, perhaps after a period of rain on Sunday morning. The storm likely ends early Monday, before the morning commute. This is likely to be a plowable snow for interior CT, but again, nothing is locked in yet, especially in southern CT.
Tuesday-Thursday
We get chilly again in the wake of the storm, regardless of how it plays out. We should finally see some sun, but temperatures will fall back into highs that top out in the 30s to perhaps low 40s. It should be quiet, but we'll be watching another possible system at the very end of the month, though that looks like a miss right now.
Beyond that, there's a signal for another potential Arctic blast, particularly on the European model, while the GFS is more moderate. For now, I lean a bit warmer at the end of the forecast period.
The Dailies
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 100%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain and/or snow, followed by snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of rain 40%. Chance of snow 60%.
Monday: Snow early followed by gradual clearing. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and colder. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
This is a critical piece to the storm. Without it we run the risk of a warmer and far less effective snow producer, even if the low takes a classic benchmark track. I have a hard time buying that this will be significantly stronger than what's being depicted now on the guidance, but the organizational trend is important too. This is something I'll be watching closely Friday and Saturday.
As it stands now, snow is likely to begin, perhaps after a period of rain on Sunday morning. The storm likely ends early Monday, before the morning commute. This is likely to be a plowable snow for interior CT, but again, nothing is locked in yet, especially in southern CT.
Tuesday-Thursday
We get chilly again in the wake of the storm, regardless of how it plays out. We should finally see some sun, but temperatures will fall back into highs that top out in the 30s to perhaps low 40s. It should be quiet, but we'll be watching another possible system at the very end of the month, though that looks like a miss right now.
Beyond that, there's a signal for another potential Arctic blast, particularly on the European model, while the GFS is more moderate. For now, I lean a bit warmer at the end of the forecast period.
The Dailies
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 100%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain and/or snow, followed by snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of rain 40%. Chance of snow 60%.
Monday: Snow early followed by gradual clearing. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and colder. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
