Southern Connecticut Weather
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE, NOT MANY CHANGES FORESEEN UNTIL PERHAPS THE WAY DISTANT FUTURE...

2/13/2020

Comments

 
Disc: We continue to roll on thru the doldrums of a very boring Feb.  This weekend will be cold, but by the time another storm gets ready to impact the area early next week, we will have warmed up already and be sufficiently warm enough for rain.

Currently: A very chaotic wx picture across the NE quarter of the US.  One frontal zone is offshore with low pressure off ACK.  Another frontal zone is across the Appalachians, with lows along that front.  That frontal zone seems to be progressing slower than fcst and that will have to be watched for purposes of tonight's fcst.  A tertiary front, the one that will actually bring the cold air with it, is moving thru the Michiana region right now.

Tonight: As mentioned, it's a bit of a difficult fcst regarding what time the front goes thru, and alas, what time lingering showers end and skies clear.  For now, will still go with rain ending in the mid afternoon and clearing a few hrs later.  That will allow temps to plummet with cold air advection, and lows should range from the mid teens to the mid 20s, except maybe a few degrees warmer along the immediate SE Coast, where clearing might take longer.  I could be off by a few hrs and if I am, temps will end up a few degrees warmer than fcst.

Tomorrow: Clear and much colder with arriving cold air advection.  I'll run with the cooler GFS guidance, as it seems to have a better handle on arriving cold air.  Don't expect temps to rise much tomorrow, esp in areas that started warmer.  Expect highs within a few degrees of 30, and a breeze to make it feel even cooler.

Tomorrow night/Saturday: Possibly the coldest air mass of the season.  Places in the NW hills and NE CT away from the cities probably start below 0.  We do moderate fairly well during the day on Sat, however.  In fact, I think we outperform guidance by a couple degrees, due to a downsloping component to the wind.  Highs should wind up within a few degrees of the freezing mark, but it could be a degree or two warmer along the I 91 corridor.  

Long Term (Sunday and beyond):  All in all, the long term is biased cooler than we have been, but warm in the middle, when a storm passes thru.  I'll split the long term into two sections- before and after storm.  First, a warm front will move thru late Sat night into early Sunday morn.  This front has almost no lift with it, but a brief flurry cannot be ruled out.  Sunday is warmer, and guidance will generally be accepted.  High temps should generally be 40-45, again a tad warmer possibly along the I 91 corridor.  Monday should be a touch cooler, as a little lobe of high pressure crests over Srn Canada and funnels just a touch of cool air into the area.  Highs should be near 40, but mid 30s N of I 84.

The next system will approach the area Tuesday.  This system has been trending slower, and I will not buck the trend.  I'll keep Tuesday dry and focus the rain on Tuesday night after mid-evening and end it by dawn on Wed.  It is not a huge system- more of just a frontal passage.  Guidance looks good for Tue's temps- and we'll go with highs in the mid to upper 40s- close to guidance.

Colder air moves in on Wednesday behind the storm system, along with wind gusts to at least 40 MPH.  Once again, I have no quibbles with temp guidance, so will generally follow.  High temps should be around 40 degrees.  Colder air seeps in for Thu.  Here is where I will go a good 5 degrees below guidance, as model guidance has trouble resolving strong cold air advection this far out. That said, expect highs around 30 degrees.  Once again, at this time, the cold shot appears transient, with another storm system slated to affect the area with more rain a few days down the line.

Long Range: The long range pattern is starting to show hints of a generally cooler pattern, as the mean SE Ridge gradually gets beaten down with time.  There may be time to even salvage a month of winter for snow-starved snow lovers! Of course, the later we head into the season, the more the interior becomes favored.

Now, let's look at some systems slated to affect the area this week.  This section will be "lighter" than normal, since after today, there's really only one system slated to affect the area with any measurable pcpn.  So let's take a look at the Tue night front.  


Picture
You can see on this map that this looks basically like a typical springtime frontal passage, minus the chance of thunderstorms, since the air mass is cooler.  The low is already over the Canadian Maritimes.  Anyway, that's all for now, see you again next week!

​-GP!
Comments

    Archives

    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at support@southernconnecticutweather.com

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service